Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with traffic still far below pre-February 2026 levels of roughly 130–160 vessels daily. Renewed fighting in July triggered sharp drops in AIS-tracked crossings, pushing volumes toward single digits per day amid insurance constraints, shipowner caution, and Iranian vetting or alternative routing requirements. The tightly bunched market-implied probabilities—led by the 25–49 range at 49.0% and 100+ at 48.5%—reflect uncertainty over whether a fragile cease-fire will support modest weekly recovery or sustained suppression persists into the August 3–9 period. Key swing factors include any escalation signals, naval escort developments, or verifiable increases in dark or overt transits ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
25-49 48%
100+ 47%
50-74 45%
<25 44%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 9, 2026
<25
44%
25-49
48%
50-74
45%
75-99
44%
100+
47%
25-49 48%
100+ 47%
50-74 45%
<25 44%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 9, 2026
<25
$0 Wol.
44%
25-49
$0 Wol.
48%
50-74
$0 Wol.
45%
75-99
$0 Wol.
44%
100+
$0 Wol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with traffic still far below pre-February 2026 levels of roughly 130–160 vessels daily. Renewed fighting in July triggered sharp drops in AIS-tracked crossings, pushing volumes toward single digits per day amid insurance constraints, shipowner caution, and Iranian vetting or alternative routing requirements. The tightly bunched market-implied probabilities—led by the 25–49 range at 49.0% and 100+ at 48.5%—reflect uncertainty over whether a fragile cease-fire will support modest weekly recovery or sustained suppression persists into the August 3–9 period. Key swing factors include any escalation signals, naval escort developments, or verifiable increases in dark or overt transits ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with traffic still far below pre-February 2026 levels of roughly 130–160 vessels daily. Renewed fighting in July triggered sharp drops in AIS-tracked crossings, pushing volumes toward single digits per day amid insurance constraints, shipowner caution, and Iranian vetting or alternative routing requirements. The tightly bunched market-implied probabilities—led by the 25–49 range at 49.0% and 100+ at 48.5%—reflect uncertainty over whether a fragile cease-fire will support modest weekly recovery or sustained suppression persists into the August 3–9 period. Key swing factors include any escalation signals, naval escort developments, or verifiable increases in dark or overt transits ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with traffic still far below pre-February 2026 levels of roughly 130–160 vessels daily. Renewed fighting in July triggered sharp drops in AIS-tracked crossings, pushing volumes toward single digits per day amid insurance constraints, shipowner caution, and Iranian vetting or alternative routing requirements. The tightly bunched market-implied probabilities—led by the 25–49 range at 49.0% and 100+ at 48.5%—reflect uncertainty over whether a fragile cease-fire will support modest weekly recovery or sustained suppression persists into the August 3–9 period. Key swing factors include any escalation signals, naval escort developments, or verifiable increases in dark or overt transits ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania