Russia’s political system remains centered on Vladimir Putin’s personal authority, with no verified indications of imminent removal from the presidency. Recent diplomatic activity, including September 2026 meetings and calls involving U.S. envoys and President Trump, has focused on Ukraine war negotiations without producing shifts in Moscow’s stance or leadership signals. The State Duma elections scheduled for September 18–20 serve as an immediate test of regime cohesion and United Russia performance under wartime conditions. Internal elite adjustments and health speculation continue without confirmed disruption to succession planning or constitutional timelines extending to 2030. Traders price low probabilities of departure by late 2026 or mid-2027, reflecting the absence of acute catalysts such as electoral setbacks, health crises, or elite defections capable of altering the current power structure.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDozens of Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies petition for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly demanded Vladimir Putin's resignation, signaling internal political dissent. This event briefly raised market speculation about Putin's potential departure.
Kremlin expects trilateral negotiations on Ukraine to resume soon, signaling diplomatic engagement
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated openness to renewed talks involving Russia, the US, and Ukraine, suggesting ongoing political maneuvering that influenced market views on Putin's political future.




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