Ongoing diplomatic stalemate and continued battlefield momentum favor extended conflict over swift resolution, much like a dominant team maintaining series lead through superior depth and recent form. Multiple 2026 trilateral rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no breakthroughs on core territorial or security demands, echoing mismatched styles that limit scoring opportunities. Postponements tied to external priorities, repeated ceasefire rejections, and entrenched positions on both sides have reinforced trader consensus around low implied probability for a decisive peace parlay by year-end, consistent with historical patterns where early-round talks fail to shift long-series dynamics without major roster or coaching changes.