Traders assign a 93.5% probability against a Russian coup attempt in 2026 due to the absence of verifiable signs that elite factions or military elements could successfully challenge President Vladimir Putin’s centralized control. Heightened Kremlin security measures since March 2026, prompted by unconfirmed European intelligence reports citing risks from figures such as Sergei Shoigu, have not produced arrests, public fractures, or coordinated actions. Putin’s approval ratings remain above 65% in state polling, while dissenting military bloggers have faced swift detention. Analysts note that Russia’s security apparatus and historical patterns of leader continuity make organized challenges difficult absent major battlefield reversals or elite defections. No scheduled events or confirmed developments through mid-August 2026 have shifted this trader consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano7% szansa
$119,498 Wol.
$119,498 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% szansa
$119,498 Wol.
$119,498 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.5% probability against a Russian coup attempt in 2026 due to the absence of verifiable signs that elite factions or military elements could successfully challenge President Vladimir Putin’s centralized control. Heightened Kremlin security measures since March 2026, prompted by unconfirmed European intelligence reports citing risks from figures such as Sergei Shoigu, have not produced arrests, public fractures, or coordinated actions. Putin’s approval ratings remain above 65% in state polling, while dissenting military bloggers have faced swift detention. Analysts note that Russia’s security apparatus and historical patterns of leader continuity make organized challenges difficult absent major battlefield reversals or elite defections. No scheduled events or confirmed developments through mid-August 2026 have shifted this trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$119,498Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.5% probability against a Russian coup attempt in 2026 due to the absence of verifiable signs that elite factions or military elements could successfully challenge President Vladimir Putin’s centralized control. Heightened Kremlin security measures since March 2026, prompted by unconfirmed European intelligence reports citing risks from figures such as Sergei Shoigu, have not produced arrests, public fractures, or coordinated actions. Putin’s approval ratings remain above 65% in state polling, while dissenting military bloggers have faced swift detention. Analysts note that Russia’s security apparatus and historical patterns of leader continuity make organized challenges difficult absent major battlefield reversals or elite defections. No scheduled events or confirmed developments through mid-August 2026 have shifted this trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$119,498Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.5% probability against a Russian coup attempt in 2026 due to the absence of verifiable signs that elite factions or military elements could successfully challenge President Vladimir Putin’s centralized control. Heightened Kremlin security measures since March 2026, prompted by unconfirmed European intelligence reports citing risks from figures such as Sergei Shoigu, have not produced arrests, public fractures, or coordinated actions. Putin’s approval ratings remain above 65% in state polling, while dissenting military bloggers have faced swift detention. Analysts note that Russia’s security apparatus and historical patterns of leader continuity make organized challenges difficult absent major battlefield reversals or elite defections. No scheduled events or confirmed developments through mid-August 2026 have shifted this trader consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania