Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities in late July 2026 have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-39 vessels per day, well below pre-crisis norms, as carriers weigh elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Closely matched probabilities around the 180-219 range reflect uncertainty over whether Saudi protection measures or any de-escalation will stabilize volumes or if further blockades and strikes will push counts below 180. Key swing factors include near-term developments in the Iran-related conflict, tanker and container operator risk assessments, and freight rate responses that could alter routing economics ahead of the August 10 week.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 49%
180-199 48%
200-219 48%
220+ 37%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
<180
49%
180-199
48%
200-219
48%
220+
37%
<180 49%
180-199 48%
200-219 48%
220+ 37%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$0 Wol.
49%
180-199
$0 Wol.
48%
200-219
$0 Wol.
48%
220+
$0 Wol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities in late July 2026 have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-39 vessels per day, well below pre-crisis norms, as carriers weigh elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Closely matched probabilities around the 180-219 range reflect uncertainty over whether Saudi protection measures or any de-escalation will stabilize volumes or if further blockades and strikes will push counts below 180. Key swing factors include near-term developments in the Iran-related conflict, tanker and container operator risk assessments, and freight rate responses that could alter routing economics ahead of the August 10 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities in late July 2026 have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-39 vessels per day, well below pre-crisis norms, as carriers weigh elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Closely matched probabilities around the 180-219 range reflect uncertainty over whether Saudi protection measures or any de-escalation will stabilize volumes or if further blockades and strikes will push counts below 180. Key swing factors include near-term developments in the Iran-related conflict, tanker and container operator risk assessments, and freight rate responses that could alter routing economics ahead of the August 10 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities in late July 2026 have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-39 vessels per day, well below pre-crisis norms, as carriers weigh elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Closely matched probabilities around the 180-219 range reflect uncertainty over whether Saudi protection measures or any de-escalation will stabilize volumes or if further blockades and strikes will push counts below 180. Key swing factors include near-term developments in the Iran-related conflict, tanker and container operator risk assessments, and freight rate responses that could alter routing economics ahead of the August 10 week.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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