**The 89% implied probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal this year stems primarily from the collapse of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding without a finalized nuclear agreement.** That preliminary accord, signed after months of talks amid ongoing regional hostilities, initiated a 60-day negotiation window on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program that expired around August 17 without extension or resolution. President Trump has indicated no interest in prolonging the framework, while Iranian officials have declared it moot due to alleged U.S. violations, leaving renewed tensions over shipping lanes and military posture in place. Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, any nuclear-related accord requires submission to Congress for review and potential disapproval votes, yet no such text has advanced to that stage. Bipartisan calls for oversight persist alongside skepticism that any deal would meet demands for full dismantlement of enrichment capabilities and related restrictions. With limited time remaining in 2026 and active conflict dynamics continuing, the trader consensus reflects the high procedural and political barriers to legislative passage.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCongress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
13% szansa
$12,413 Wol.
$12,413 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% szansa
$12,413 Wol.
$12,413 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The 89% implied probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal this year stems primarily from the collapse of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding without a finalized nuclear agreement.** That preliminary accord, signed after months of talks amid ongoing regional hostilities, initiated a 60-day negotiation window on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program that expired around August 17 without extension or resolution. President Trump has indicated no interest in prolonging the framework, while Iranian officials have declared it moot due to alleged U.S. violations, leaving renewed tensions over shipping lanes and military posture in place.
Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, any nuclear-related accord requires submission to Congress for review and potential disapproval votes, yet no such text has advanced to that stage. Bipartisan calls for oversight persist alongside skepticism that any deal would meet demands for full dismantlement of enrichment capabilities and related restrictions. With limited time remaining in 2026 and active conflict dynamics continuing, the trader consensus reflects the high procedural and political barriers to legislative passage.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,413Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The 89% implied probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal this year stems primarily from the collapse of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding without a finalized nuclear agreement.** That preliminary accord, signed after months of talks amid ongoing regional hostilities, initiated a 60-day negotiation window on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program that expired around August 17 without extension or resolution. President Trump has indicated no interest in prolonging the framework, while Iranian officials have declared it moot due to alleged U.S. violations, leaving renewed tensions over shipping lanes and military posture in place.
Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, any nuclear-related accord requires submission to Congress for review and potential disapproval votes, yet no such text has advanced to that stage. Bipartisan calls for oversight persist alongside skepticism that any deal would meet demands for full dismantlement of enrichment capabilities and related restrictions. With limited time remaining in 2026 and active conflict dynamics continuing, the trader consensus reflects the high procedural and political barriers to legislative passage.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$12,413Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 89% implied probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal this year stems primarily from the collapse of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding without a finalized nuclear agreement.** That preliminary accord, signed after months of talks amid ongoing regional hostilities, initiated a 60-day negotiation window on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program that expired around August 17 without extension or resolution. President Trump has indicated no interest in prolonging the framework, while Iranian officials have declared it moot due to alleged U.S. violations, leaving renewed tensions over shipping lanes and military posture in place. Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, any nuclear-related accord requires submission to Congress for review and potential disapproval votes, yet no such text has advanced to that stage. Bipartisan calls for oversight persist alongside skepticism that any deal would meet demands for full dismantlement of enrichment capabilities and related restrictions. With limited time remaining in 2026 and active conflict dynamics continuing, the trader consensus reflects the high procedural and political barriers to legislative passage.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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