Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with recent Kpler data showing commodity vessel crossings averaging in the single digits to low teens per day amid IRGC enforcement actions, vessel seizures, and attacks such as the August 17-18 strike on the Minoan Dignity. Elevated war-risk insurance costs and avoidance by major operators, including Chinese-linked fleets, have suppressed volumes well below the pre-February 2026 baseline of roughly 130 daily transits. Over August 1-19, 236 total ships passed through, many via dark or Iranian-routed paths, but energy carrier flows remained limited by sanctions exposure and route uncertainty. Trader consensus in the 25-49 range for the week of August 24 reflects expectations of constrained but non-zero activity amid stalled peace talks, while the elevated <25 probability prices in downside risks from further escalations or compliance pullbacks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 55%
<25 35%
50-74 8%
75-99 2.4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 30, 2026
<25
35%
25-49
55%
50-74
8%
75-99
2%
100+
2%
25-49 55%
<25 35%
50-74 8%
75-99 2.4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$330 Wol.
35%
25-49
$355 Wol.
55%
50-74
$71 Wol.
8%
75-99
$109 Wol.
2%
100+
$62 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with recent Kpler data showing commodity vessel crossings averaging in the single digits to low teens per day amid IRGC enforcement actions, vessel seizures, and attacks such as the August 17-18 strike on the Minoan Dignity. Elevated war-risk insurance costs and avoidance by major operators, including Chinese-linked fleets, have suppressed volumes well below the pre-February 2026 baseline of roughly 130 daily transits. Over August 1-19, 236 total ships passed through, many via dark or Iranian-routed paths, but energy carrier flows remained limited by sanctions exposure and route uncertainty. Trader consensus in the 25-49 range for the week of August 24 reflects expectations of constrained but non-zero activity amid stalled peace talks, while the elevated <25 probability prices in downside risks from further escalations or compliance pullbacks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Wolumen
$926Data zakończenia
Aug 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with recent Kpler data showing commodity vessel crossings averaging in the single digits to low teens per day amid IRGC enforcement actions, vessel seizures, and attacks such as the August 17-18 strike on the Minoan Dignity. Elevated war-risk insurance costs and avoidance by major operators, including Chinese-linked fleets, have suppressed volumes well below the pre-February 2026 baseline of roughly 130 daily transits. Over August 1-19, 236 total ships passed through, many via dark or Iranian-routed paths, but energy carrier flows remained limited by sanctions exposure and route uncertainty. Trader consensus in the 25-49 range for the week of August 24 reflects expectations of constrained but non-zero activity amid stalled peace talks, while the elevated <25 probability prices in downside risks from further escalations or compliance pullbacks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$926Data zakończenia
Aug 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with recent Kpler data showing commodity vessel crossings averaging in the single digits to low teens per day amid IRGC enforcement actions, vessel seizures, and attacks such as the August 17-18 strike on the Minoan Dignity. Elevated war-risk insurance costs and avoidance by major operators, including Chinese-linked fleets, have suppressed volumes well below the pre-February 2026 baseline of roughly 130 daily transits. Over August 1-19, 236 total ships passed through, many via dark or Iranian-routed paths, but energy carrier flows remained limited by sanctions exposure and route uncertainty. Trader consensus in the 25-49 range for the week of August 24 reflects expectations of constrained but non-zero activity amid stalled peace talks, while the elevated <25 probability prices in downside risks from further escalations or compliance pullbacks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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