The closely matched implied probabilities across numerous AI labs reflect intense competition in math-focused large language model evaluations on Text Arena, where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Anthropic's recent Claude variants lead current math category scores around 1520+, driven by strong performance on reasoning tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 series, Google's Gemini models, and Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM), Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), and DeepSeek deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH-500. Key differentiators include specialized reasoning capabilities, training scale, and cost efficiency, with open-weight options gaining traction. Upcoming model updates or new capability demonstrations before November's end remain the main swing factors in this uncertain environment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?
Z.ai 46%
Microsoft 41%
SpaceXAI 36%
Thinky 25%

Z.ai
46%

Microsoft
41%

SpaceXAI
36%

Thinky
25%

Meta
24%

23%

Xiaomi
23%

DeepSeek
22%

OpenAI
21%

Tencent
19%

MiniMax
18%

Meituan
15%

Baidu
14%

Moonshot
14%

StepFun
12%

Alibaba
12%

Nvidia
13%

Mistral
6%

Anthropic
3%

Amazon
3%

ByteDance
34%
Z.ai 46%
Microsoft 41%
SpaceXAI 36%
Thinky 25%

Z.ai
46%

Microsoft
41%

SpaceXAI
36%

Thinky
25%

Meta
24%

23%

Xiaomi
23%

DeepSeek
22%

OpenAI
21%

Tencent
19%

MiniMax
18%

Meituan
15%

Baidu
14%

Moonshot
14%

StepFun
12%

Alibaba
12%

Nvidia
13%

Mistral
6%

Anthropic
3%

Amazon
3%

ByteDance
34%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched implied probabilities across numerous AI labs reflect intense competition in math-focused large language model evaluations on Text Arena, where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Anthropic's recent Claude variants lead current math category scores around 1520+, driven by strong performance on reasoning tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 series, Google's Gemini models, and Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM), Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), and DeepSeek deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH-500. Key differentiators include specialized reasoning capabilities, training scale, and cost efficiency, with open-weight options gaining traction. Upcoming model updates or new capability demonstrations before November's end remain the main swing factors in this uncertain environment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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