The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous unnamed contenders reflect intense uncertainty in the race for third place among AI labs by late November, driven by rapid model releases, benchmark gains in areas like style-controlled generation, and shifting user adoption metrics. Major labs such as Meta, ByteDance, and Mistral sit lower at 21–24% amid competitive positioning in large language model capabilities, while OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic trail further due to focus on higher-ranked slots or regulatory scrutiny. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, safety evaluations, and platform integrations that could elevate smaller players through demonstrated advances in controlled output styles or ecosystem growth. Traders weigh these against typical timelines for capability jumps, recognizing that product delays or new partnerships could quickly realign sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
Mistral 20%
Meta 19%
MiniMax 19%
Xiaomi 18%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
Mistral
20%
Meta
19%
MiniMax
19%
Xiaomi
18%
Z.ai
17%
ByteDance
16%
Nvidia
15%
Microsoft
15%
Moonshot
13%
Baidu
13%
Amazon
13%
12%
Alibaba
12%
Thinky
11%
Anthropic
11%
StepFun
11%
DeepSeek
7%
OpenAI
6%
Meituan
6%
Tencent
6%
SpaceXAI
13%
Mistral 20%
Meta 19%
MiniMax 19%
Xiaomi 18%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
Mistral
$33 Wol.
20%
Meta
$33 Wol.
19%
MiniMax
$33 Wol.
19%
Xiaomi
$33 Wol.
18%
Z.ai
$33 Wol.
17%
ByteDance
$33 Wol.
16%
Nvidia
$33 Wol.
15%
Microsoft
$33 Wol.
15%
Moonshot
$33 Wol.
13%
Baidu
$33 Wol.
13%
Amazon
$33 Wol.
13%
$39 Wol.
12%
Alibaba
$33 Wol.
12%
Thinky
$33 Wol.
11%
Anthropic
$33 Wol.
11%
StepFun
$33 Wol.
11%
DeepSeek
$33 Wol.
7%
OpenAI
$33 Wol.
6%
Meituan
$33 Wol.
6%
Tencent
$33 Wol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$35 Wol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous unnamed contenders reflect intense uncertainty in the race for third place among AI labs by late November, driven by rapid model releases, benchmark gains in areas like style-controlled generation, and shifting user adoption metrics. Major labs such as Meta, ByteDance, and Mistral sit lower at 21–24% amid competitive positioning in large language model capabilities, while OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic trail further due to focus on higher-ranked slots or regulatory scrutiny. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, safety evaluations, and platform integrations that could elevate smaller players through demonstrated advances in controlled output styles or ecosystem growth. Traders weigh these against typical timelines for capability jumps, recognizing that product delays or new partnerships could quickly realign sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$700Data zakończenia
Dec 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous unnamed contenders reflect intense uncertainty in the race for third place among AI labs by late November, driven by rapid model releases, benchmark gains in areas like style-controlled generation, and shifting user adoption metrics. Major labs such as Meta, ByteDance, and Mistral sit lower at 21–24% amid competitive positioning in large language model capabilities, while OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic trail further due to focus on higher-ranked slots or regulatory scrutiny. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, safety evaluations, and platform integrations that could elevate smaller players through demonstrated advances in controlled output styles or ecosystem growth. Traders weigh these against typical timelines for capability jumps, recognizing that product delays or new partnerships could quickly realign sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$700Data zakończenia
Dec 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous unnamed contenders reflect intense uncertainty in the race for third place among AI labs by late November, driven by rapid model releases, benchmark gains in areas like style-controlled generation, and shifting user adoption metrics. Major labs such as Meta, ByteDance, and Mistral sit lower at 21–24% amid competitive positioning in large language model capabilities, while OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic trail further due to focus on higher-ranked slots or regulatory scrutiny. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, safety evaluations, and platform integrations that could elevate smaller players through demonstrated advances in controlled output styles or ecosystem growth. Traders weigh these against typical timelines for capability jumps, recognizing that product delays or new partnerships could quickly realign sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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