**Geopolitical tensions and elevated war-risk premiums continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around the 20-39 bucket at 62% implied probability.** Ongoing Iran-U.S. frictions, including Iranian blacklisting of 45 vessels, stalled Iran-Oman corridor negotiations, and persistent IRGC enforcement of unilateral routing, have kept visible AIS transits and open commercial movements at a small fraction of the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85–130 vessels daily. Recent Kpler data showed only 121 crossings over the week of August 17–23 amid widespread dark steaming and shuttle operations that lift oil flows modestly (toward 8 million bpd) but leave many movements uncounted or high-risk. War-risk insurance multiples near 40×, stranding of hundreds of vessels, and carrier rerouting further constrain weekly totals, making the 40–59 and higher ranges appear less probable absent rapid diplomatic resolution. Traders are pricing the near-term path as one of continued low, uncertain volume rather than normalization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 62%
40-59 17%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
NOWE
$13,861 Wol.
NOWE
$13,861 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
14%
20-39
62%
40-59
17%
60-79
7%
80+
1%
20-39 62%
40-59 17%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
NOWE
$13,861 Wol.
NOWE
$13,861 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$682 Wol.
14%
20-39
$11,684 Wol.
62%
40-59
$1,025 Wol.
17%
60-79
$230 Wol.
7%
80+
$240 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions and elevated war-risk premiums continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around the 20-39 bucket at 62% implied probability.**
Ongoing Iran-U.S. frictions, including Iranian blacklisting of 45 vessels, stalled Iran-Oman corridor negotiations, and persistent IRGC enforcement of unilateral routing, have kept visible AIS transits and open commercial movements at a small fraction of the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85–130 vessels daily. Recent Kpler data showed only 121 crossings over the week of August 17–23 amid widespread dark steaming and shuttle operations that lift oil flows modestly (toward 8 million bpd) but leave many movements uncounted or high-risk. War-risk insurance multiples near 40×, stranding of hundreds of vessels, and carrier rerouting further constrain weekly totals, making the 40–59 and higher ranges appear less probable absent rapid diplomatic resolution. Traders are pricing the near-term path as one of continued low, uncertain volume rather than normalization.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$13,861Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions and elevated war-risk premiums continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around the 20-39 bucket at 62% implied probability.**
Ongoing Iran-U.S. frictions, including Iranian blacklisting of 45 vessels, stalled Iran-Oman corridor negotiations, and persistent IRGC enforcement of unilateral routing, have kept visible AIS transits and open commercial movements at a small fraction of the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85–130 vessels daily. Recent Kpler data showed only 121 crossings over the week of August 17–23 amid widespread dark steaming and shuttle operations that lift oil flows modestly (toward 8 million bpd) but leave many movements uncounted or high-risk. War-risk insurance multiples near 40×, stranding of hundreds of vessels, and carrier rerouting further constrain weekly totals, making the 40–59 and higher ranges appear less probable absent rapid diplomatic resolution. Traders are pricing the near-term path as one of continued low, uncertain volume rather than normalization.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$13,861Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Geopolitical tensions and elevated war-risk premiums continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around the 20-39 bucket at 62% implied probability.** Ongoing Iran-U.S. frictions, including Iranian blacklisting of 45 vessels, stalled Iran-Oman corridor negotiations, and persistent IRGC enforcement of unilateral routing, have kept visible AIS transits and open commercial movements at a small fraction of the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85–130 vessels daily. Recent Kpler data showed only 121 crossings over the week of August 17–23 amid widespread dark steaming and shuttle operations that lift oil flows modestly (toward 8 million bpd) but leave many movements uncounted or high-risk. War-risk insurance multiples near 40×, stranding of hundreds of vessels, and carrier rerouting further constrain weekly totals, making the 40–59 and higher ranges appear less probable absent rapid diplomatic resolution. Traders are pricing the near-term path as one of continued low, uncertain volume rather than normalization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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