**Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have both publicly ruled out a renewed joint list for the October 27, 2026, election, citing distinct voter bases and polling data showing that a merger would likely cost the right-wing bloc seats.** Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir stated in June and July 2026 that the parties appeal to fundamentally different electorates—one broader and more secular-leaning, the other a narrower national-religious segment—and reiterated in late August that his decision against alliance is “final and complete.” Religious Zionist Party head Bezalel Smotrich similarly confirmed RZP would run independently, releasing its primary results and Knesset slate in July without reference to Otzma Yehudit. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s repeated public appeals for unity in August, aimed at protecting the right-wing bloc from threshold losses, were rejected by Ben-Gvir, who argued a merger would suppress turnout and weaken the bloc by 3–4 mandates. Recent polling reinforces this stance: Otzma Yehudit consistently clears the 3.25% threshold with 6–8 seats on its own, while RZP hovers near or below it amid competition from Ofer Winter’s new party targeting overlapping religious-nationalist voters. The parties last ran together in 2022 (with Noam) but operated separately afterward; both leaders’ explicit rejections and RZP’s standalone list preparations have anchored trader consensus around an 82.5% probability of “No.”