Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts needed for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification and favors sustained coercion short of war through diplomatic, economic, and military pressure campaigns. Recent developments, including December 2025 blockade-style drills and Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups and supply resilience, remain below thresholds signaling imminent conflict. Ongoing PLA readiness gaps and risks of U.S. and allied intervention further reinforce market consensus. Late shifts could still emerge from exercise miscalculations or abrupt policy changes, though structural and timing constraints limit these prospects before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy Chiny dokonają inwazji na Tajwan do końca 2026 roku?
Czy Chiny dokonają inwazji na Tajwan do końca 2026 roku?
Tak
$39,753,980 Wol.
$39,753,980 Wol.
Tak
$39,753,980 Wol.
$39,753,980 Wol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts needed for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification and favors sustained coercion short of war through diplomatic, economic, and military pressure campaigns. Recent developments, including December 2025 blockade-style drills and Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups and supply resilience, remain below thresholds signaling imminent conflict. Ongoing PLA readiness gaps and risks of U.S. and allied intervention further reinforce market consensus. Late shifts could still emerge from exercise miscalculations or abrupt policy changes, though structural and timing constraints limit these prospects before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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