Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained air and naval surges, or other verifiable indicators of imminent military action in the remaining weeks. Ongoing patterns of Chinese coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and periodic PLA exercises continue without crossing into full combat readiness, while Taiwan’s August Han Kuang drills emphasize defensive resilience rather than an acute crisis response. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 found no fixed timeline for unification by force, and economic interdependence plus alliance signaling further raise the threshold for short-notice escalation. Late developments such as an unforeseen diplomatic rupture or rapid force concentration could theoretically alter the outlook, though current evidence shows no such trajectory.