China’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years and below the 4.5% consensus, amid softening domestic demand, property-sector drag, and an oil-price shock that offset resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. H1 growth reached 4.7%, staying inside the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet August manufacturing PMI contracted for a second month at 49.8 while early-Q3 activity indicators point to further moderation near 4%. These data have anchored Polymarket pricing on the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% intervals, reflecting trader expectations that incremental fiscal support following the July Politburo meeting will provide only modest stabilization ahead of the October 20 release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6% 47%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.6%
4.9-5.2% 1.7%
$32,916 Wol.
$32,916 Wol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.3-4.6%
47%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 47%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.6%
4.9-5.2% 1.7%
$32,916 Wol.
$32,916 Wol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,221 Wol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Wol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,250 Wol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,334 Wol.
19%
4.3-4.6%
$12,516 Wol.
47%
4.6-4.9%
$8,763 Wol.
36%
4.9-5.2%
$3,349 Wol.
2%
5.2-5.5%
$1,476 Wol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,314 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years and below the 4.5% consensus, amid softening domestic demand, property-sector drag, and an oil-price shock that offset resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. H1 growth reached 4.7%, staying inside the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet August manufacturing PMI contracted for a second month at 49.8 while early-Q3 activity indicators point to further moderation near 4%. These data have anchored Polymarket pricing on the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% intervals, reflecting trader expectations that incremental fiscal support following the July Politburo meeting will provide only modest stabilization ahead of the October 20 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$32,916Data zakończenia
Oct 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years and below the 4.5% consensus, amid softening domestic demand, property-sector drag, and an oil-price shock that offset resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. H1 growth reached 4.7%, staying inside the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet August manufacturing PMI contracted for a second month at 49.8 while early-Q3 activity indicators point to further moderation near 4%. These data have anchored Polymarket pricing on the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% intervals, reflecting trader expectations that incremental fiscal support following the July Politburo meeting will provide only modest stabilization ahead of the October 20 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Wolumen
$32,916Data zakończenia
Oct 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years and below the 4.5% consensus, amid softening domestic demand, property-sector drag, and an oil-price shock that offset resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. H1 growth reached 4.7%, staying inside the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet August manufacturing PMI contracted for a second month at 49.8 while early-Q3 activity indicators point to further moderation near 4%. These data have anchored Polymarket pricing on the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% intervals, reflecting trader expectations that incremental fiscal support following the July Politburo meeting will provide only modest stabilization ahead of the October 20 release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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