Recent UK economic data and Bank of England communications point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid persistent inflation pressures and a loosening labor market. Q2 preliminary growth printed at 0.4% QoQ, following 0.6% in Q1, while CPI inflation stood at 2.6% in June with projections for a rise toward 3.2% by year-end due to energy price pass-through from Middle East developments. The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, with markets pricing limited near-term easing as unemployment edges higher toward 5%. These factors support trader focus on the tightly bunched 0.0–0.3% bands at roughly 41.5% each, reflecting expectations of modest expansion tempered by weak business surveys and fiscal headwinds, though upside surprises in consumer spending or energy stabilization could shift probabilities toward the 0.4–0.5% range ahead of the September MPC decision and full Q3 data releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
0.2–0.3% 42%
0.0–0.1% 39%
0.4–0.5% 38%
0.6–0.7% 35%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
34%
0.0–0.1%
39%
0.2–0.3%
42%
0.4–0.5%
38%
0.6–0.7%
35%
0.8–0.9%
7%
1.0%+
7%
0.2–0.3% 42%
0.0–0.1% 39%
0.4–0.5% 38%
0.6–0.7% 35%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
$0 Wol.
34%
0.0–0.1%
$0 Wol.
39%
0.2–0.3%
$0 Wol.
42%
0.4–0.5%
$0 Wol.
38%
0.6–0.7%
$0 Wol.
35%
0.8–0.9%
$0 Wol.
7%
1.0%+
$0 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and Bank of England communications point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid persistent inflation pressures and a loosening labor market. Q2 preliminary growth printed at 0.4% QoQ, following 0.6% in Q1, while CPI inflation stood at 2.6% in June with projections for a rise toward 3.2% by year-end due to energy price pass-through from Middle East developments. The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, with markets pricing limited near-term easing as unemployment edges higher toward 5%. These factors support trader focus on the tightly bunched 0.0–0.3% bands at roughly 41.5% each, reflecting expectations of modest expansion tempered by weak business surveys and fiscal headwinds, though upside surprises in consumer spending or energy stabilization could shift probabilities toward the 0.4–0.5% range ahead of the September MPC decision and full Q3 data releases.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and Bank of England communications point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid persistent inflation pressures and a loosening labor market. Q2 preliminary growth printed at 0.4% QoQ, following 0.6% in Q1, while CPI inflation stood at 2.6% in June with projections for a rise toward 3.2% by year-end due to energy price pass-through from Middle East developments. The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, with markets pricing limited near-term easing as unemployment edges higher toward 5%. These factors support trader focus on the tightly bunched 0.0–0.3% bands at roughly 41.5% each, reflecting expectations of modest expansion tempered by weak business surveys and fiscal headwinds, though upside surprises in consumer spending or energy stabilization could shift probabilities toward the 0.4–0.5% range ahead of the September MPC decision and full Q3 data releases.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK economic data and Bank of England communications point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid persistent inflation pressures and a loosening labor market. Q2 preliminary growth printed at 0.4% QoQ, following 0.6% in Q1, while CPI inflation stood at 2.6% in June with projections for a rise toward 3.2% by year-end due to energy price pass-through from Middle East developments. The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, with markets pricing limited near-term easing as unemployment edges higher toward 5%. These factors support trader focus on the tightly bunched 0.0–0.3% bands at roughly 41.5% each, reflecting expectations of modest expansion tempered by weak business surveys and fiscal headwinds, though upside surprises in consumer spending or energy stabilization could shift probabilities toward the 0.4–0.5% range ahead of the September MPC decision and full Q3 data releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania