Traders assign an 87.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the U.S. intelligence community's assessment that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for such an operation. China has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through PLA air incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills in the strait while avoiding the logistics, command readiness, and political conditions required for a full amphibious campaign. Recent military purges under Xi Jinping, Taiwan's expanded Han Kuang exercises and asymmetric capabilities, and U.S. deterrence signals have reinforced this pattern of pressure short of war. No verified developments in 2026 have shifted Beijing toward crossing the threshold before the market's resolution date.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$2,780,422 Wol.
$2,780,422 Wol.
$2,780,422 Wol.
$2,780,422 Wol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign an 87.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the U.S. intelligence community's assessment that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for such an operation. China has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through PLA air incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills in the strait while avoiding the logistics, command readiness, and political conditions required for a full amphibious campaign. Recent military purges under Xi Jinping, Taiwan's expanded Han Kuang exercises and asymmetric capabilities, and U.S. deterrence signals have reinforced this pattern of pressure short of war. No verified developments in 2026 have shifted Beijing toward crossing the threshold before the market's resolution date.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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