Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks through the Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, provide the main driver behind the elevated Yes odds. That forum is advancing targeted tariff rollbacks, reciprocal purchase commitments, and non-tariff barrier reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods, building directly on the November 2025 framework that lowered fentanyl-related duties, suspended higher reciprocal rates through November 2026, and extended exclusion processes into late 2026. Agricultural purchase targets and rare-earth access understandings reached at the summit have been partially implemented, reducing immediate escalation risks and giving both sides structured channels to finalize additional terms before year-end. Traders therefore assign high probability to a further agreement materializing within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% szansa
$220,590 Wol.
$220,590 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
89% szansa
$220,590 Wol.
$220,590 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks through the Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, provide the main driver behind the elevated Yes odds. That forum is advancing targeted tariff rollbacks, reciprocal purchase commitments, and non-tariff barrier reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods, building directly on the November 2025 framework that lowered fentanyl-related duties, suspended higher reciprocal rates through November 2026, and extended exclusion processes into late 2026. Agricultural purchase targets and rare-earth access understandings reached at the summit have been partially implemented, reducing immediate escalation risks and giving both sides structured channels to finalize additional terms before year-end. Traders therefore assign high probability to a further agreement materializing within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Rynek otwarty: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Wolumen
$220,590Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks through the Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, provide the main driver behind the elevated Yes odds. That forum is advancing targeted tariff rollbacks, reciprocal purchase commitments, and non-tariff barrier reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods, building directly on the November 2025 framework that lowered fentanyl-related duties, suspended higher reciprocal rates through November 2026, and extended exclusion processes into late 2026. Agricultural purchase targets and rare-earth access understandings reached at the summit have been partially implemented, reducing immediate escalation risks and giving both sides structured channels to finalize additional terms before year-end. Traders therefore assign high probability to a further agreement materializing within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Wolumen
$220,590Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks through the Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, provide the main driver behind the elevated Yes odds. That forum is advancing targeted tariff rollbacks, reciprocal purchase commitments, and non-tariff barrier reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods, building directly on the November 2025 framework that lowered fentanyl-related duties, suspended higher reciprocal rates through November 2026, and extended exclusion processes into late 2026. Agricultural purchase targets and rare-earth access understandings reached at the summit have been partially implemented, reducing immediate escalation risks and giving both sides structured channels to finalize additional terms before year-end. Traders therefore assign high probability to a further agreement materializing within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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