Following New START's expiration on February 5, 2026, without extension, U.S. and Russian officials have signaled openness to follow-on talks on strategic arms limits, with the Trump administration seeking a modernized bilateral or multilateral pact that could incorporate China and address all warhead categories. Russia has stated willingness to observe prior numerical caps under certain conditions while both sides maintain verification and compliance disputes unresolved. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities due to the Ukraine conflict's impact on diplomatic trust, differing priorities on missile defense and tactical systems, and absence of scheduled high-level negotiations or breakthroughs since spring 2026. Any deal would require Senate or equivalent ratification processes, adding procedural timelines that extend beyond immediate resolution windows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUSA x Rosja Transakcja nuklearna do...?
$660,693 Wol.
September 30
1%
December 31
3%
$660,693 Wol.
September 30
1%
December 31
3%
Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.
An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.
Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.
The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.
An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.
Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.
The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Following New START's expiration on February 5, 2026, without extension, U.S. and Russian officials have signaled openness to follow-on talks on strategic arms limits, with the Trump administration seeking a modernized bilateral or multilateral pact that could incorporate China and address all warhead categories. Russia has stated willingness to observe prior numerical caps under certain conditions while both sides maintain verification and compliance disputes unresolved. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities due to the Ukraine conflict's impact on diplomatic trust, differing priorities on missile defense and tactical systems, and absence of scheduled high-level negotiations or breakthroughs since spring 2026. Any deal would require Senate or equivalent ratification processes, adding procedural timelines that extend beyond immediate resolution windows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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