US diplomatic mediation under President Trump has produced repeated bilateral calls and meetings with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy separately, along with envoy-level trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi, yet no trilateral leaders’ gathering has occurred. Putin has consistently rejected direct engagement with Zelenskyy absent prior agreements on core issues such as territorial control and security arrangements, while Zelenskyy has proposed neutral or US venues that Moscow has declined. Recent NATO summit discussions and phone diplomacy through mid-2026 have sustained momentum for bilateral channels and partial ceasefires but yielded no scheduled joint appearance of all three before the end of 2026. Trader pricing at 93 percent for “No” reflects these persistent procedural and substantive barriers.