Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted and damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization facilities, substantially degrading its nuclear infrastructure and halting enrichment activities according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through early June 2026 show little subsequent change, with inspectors facing restricted access since the initial strikes and no indications of a structured nuclear weapons program or preparations for testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks and sanctions pressure further constrain rapid reconstitution, supporting trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a nuclear test before 2027 despite its retained stockpile of enriched uranium.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$203,461 Wol.
$203,461 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$203,461 Wol.
$203,461 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted and damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization facilities, substantially degrading its nuclear infrastructure and halting enrichment activities according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through early June 2026 show little subsequent change, with inspectors facing restricted access since the initial strikes and no indications of a structured nuclear weapons program or preparations for testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks and sanctions pressure further constrain rapid reconstitution, supporting trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a nuclear test before 2027 despite its retained stockpile of enriched uranium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$203,461Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted and damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization facilities, substantially degrading its nuclear infrastructure and halting enrichment activities according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through early June 2026 show little subsequent change, with inspectors facing restricted access since the initial strikes and no indications of a structured nuclear weapons program or preparations for testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks and sanctions pressure further constrain rapid reconstitution, supporting trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a nuclear test before 2027 despite its retained stockpile of enriched uranium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$203,461Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted and damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization facilities, substantially degrading its nuclear infrastructure and halting enrichment activities according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through early June 2026 show little subsequent change, with inspectors facing restricted access since the initial strikes and no indications of a structured nuclear weapons program or preparations for testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks and sanctions pressure further constrain rapid reconstitution, supporting trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a nuclear test before 2027 despite its retained stockpile of enriched uranium.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania