Ongoing Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including the late-August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan, sustain elevated war-risk premiums and prompt selective carrier routing decisions that cap Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Recent MarineTraffic data show 269 crossings in the latest tracked week, while AIS-visible counts have stabilized near 223, reflecting a mix of resumed Suez services by major lines alongside persistent dark transits and ballast movements. Trader consensus clusters in the 170-209 range as participants weigh partial recovery against the threat of further escalation or rerouting around the Cape, with limited near-term catalysts beyond daily security updates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
190-209 41%
170-189 33%
230+ 14%
210-229 11%
NOWE
$24,336 Wol.
NOWE
$24,336 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
5%
170-189
33%
190-209
41%
210-229
11%
230+
14%
190-209 41%
170-189 33%
230+ 14%
210-229 11%
NOWE
$24,336 Wol.
NOWE
$24,336 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$116 Wol.
5%
170-189
$116 Wol.
33%
190-209
$2,069 Wol.
41%
210-229
$8,983 Wol.
11%
230+
$13,051 Wol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including the late-August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan, sustain elevated war-risk premiums and prompt selective carrier routing decisions that cap Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Recent MarineTraffic data show 269 crossings in the latest tracked week, while AIS-visible counts have stabilized near 223, reflecting a mix of resumed Suez services by major lines alongside persistent dark transits and ballast movements. Trader consensus clusters in the 170-209 range as participants weigh partial recovery against the threat of further escalation or rerouting around the Cape, with limited near-term catalysts beyond daily security updates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$24,336Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including the late-August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan, sustain elevated war-risk premiums and prompt selective carrier routing decisions that cap Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Recent MarineTraffic data show 269 crossings in the latest tracked week, while AIS-visible counts have stabilized near 223, reflecting a mix of resumed Suez services by major lines alongside persistent dark transits and ballast movements. Trader consensus clusters in the 170-209 range as participants weigh partial recovery against the threat of further escalation or rerouting around the Cape, with limited near-term catalysts beyond daily security updates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Wolumen
$24,336Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including the late-August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan, sustain elevated war-risk premiums and prompt selective carrier routing decisions that cap Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Recent MarineTraffic data show 269 crossings in the latest tracked week, while AIS-visible counts have stabilized near 223, reflecting a mix of resumed Suez services by major lines alongside persistent dark transits and ballast movements. Trader consensus clusters in the 170-209 range as participants weigh partial recovery against the threat of further escalation or rerouting around the Cape, with limited near-term catalysts beyond daily security updates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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