Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, including IRGC enforcement actions, sanctions escalations, naval blockades, and vessel strikes, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages in late August. Pre-crisis baselines of 85–138 transits per day have fallen to roughly 5 amid mine risks, dark transits, and restricted corridors, with only limited U.S.-facilitated movements sustaining minimal flows. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0-5 and 5-10 buckets prices in sustained low volumes through September absent a durable de-escalation agreement, while higher buckets embed slim odds of meaningful recovery tied to diplomatic breakthroughs or reduced enforcement. Upcoming catalysts include potential Iran-Oman corridor talks and any shifts in sanctions or naval posture.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 16%
25-30 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
0-5
32%
5-10
29%
10-15
16%
15-20
6%
20-25
5%
25-30
11%
30+
9%
0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 16%
25-30 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
0-5
$133 Wol.
32%
5-10
$220 Wol.
29%
10-15
$224 Wol.
16%
15-20
$431 Wol.
6%
20-25
$45 Wol.
5%
25-30
$4,032 Wol.
11%
30+
$52 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, including IRGC enforcement actions, sanctions escalations, naval blockades, and vessel strikes, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages in late August. Pre-crisis baselines of 85–138 transits per day have fallen to roughly 5 amid mine risks, dark transits, and restricted corridors, with only limited U.S.-facilitated movements sustaining minimal flows. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0-5 and 5-10 buckets prices in sustained low volumes through September absent a durable de-escalation agreement, while higher buckets embed slim odds of meaningful recovery tied to diplomatic breakthroughs or reduced enforcement. Upcoming catalysts include potential Iran-Oman corridor talks and any shifts in sanctions or naval posture.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,137Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, including IRGC enforcement actions, sanctions escalations, naval blockades, and vessel strikes, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages in late August. Pre-crisis baselines of 85–138 transits per day have fallen to roughly 5 amid mine risks, dark transits, and restricted corridors, with only limited U.S.-facilitated movements sustaining minimal flows. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0-5 and 5-10 buckets prices in sustained low volumes through September absent a durable de-escalation agreement, while higher buckets embed slim odds of meaningful recovery tied to diplomatic breakthroughs or reduced enforcement. Upcoming catalysts include potential Iran-Oman corridor talks and any shifts in sanctions or naval posture.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$5,137Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, including IRGC enforcement actions, sanctions escalations, naval blockades, and vessel strikes, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages in late August. Pre-crisis baselines of 85–138 transits per day have fallen to roughly 5 amid mine risks, dark transits, and restricted corridors, with only limited U.S.-facilitated movements sustaining minimal flows. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0-5 and 5-10 buckets prices in sustained low volumes through September absent a durable de-escalation agreement, while higher buckets embed slim odds of meaningful recovery tied to diplomatic breakthroughs or reduced enforcement. Upcoming catalysts include potential Iran-Oman corridor talks and any shifts in sanctions or naval posture.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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