As of early September 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced five named tropical storms but zero hurricanes, far below the climatological average first-hurricane date near August 11. Persistent El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region while promoting drier mid-level air, both of which strongly suppress intensification of tropical cyclones into hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph). The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no formation expected in the next seven days, keeping near-term probabilities low. Trader consensus around late-September formation or none in September reflects this ongoing suppression, tempered by uncertainty over whether a late-season wave could organize before October amid diverging model guidance on shear trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月26日から9月30日 32%
2026年9月21日から9月25日 31%
2026年9月に大西洋でハリケーンは1つも発生しない 24%
2026年9月1日から9月10日 9%
新規
新規
2026/09/10
2026年9月1日から9月10日
9%
2026年9月11日から9月15日
7%
2026年9月16日から9月20日
7%
2026年9月21日から9月25日
31%
2026年9月26日から9月30日
32%
2026年9月に大西洋でハリケーンは1つも発生しない
24%
2026年9月26日から9月30日 32%
2026年9月21日から9月25日 31%
2026年9月に大西洋でハリケーンは1つも発生しない 24%
2026年9月1日から9月10日 9%
新規
新規
2026/09/10
2026年9月1日から9月10日
$28 Vol.
9%
2026年9月11日から9月15日
$83 Vol.
7%
2026年9月16日から9月20日
$323 Vol.
7%
2026年9月21日から9月25日
$0 Vol.
31%
2026年9月26日から9月30日
$0 Vol.
32%
2026年9月に大西洋でハリケーンは1つも発生しない
$0 Vol.
24%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/As of early September 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced five named tropical storms but zero hurricanes, far below the climatological average first-hurricane date near August 11. Persistent El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region while promoting drier mid-level air, both of which strongly suppress intensification of tropical cyclones into hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph). The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no formation expected in the next seven days, keeping near-term probabilities low. Trader consensus around late-September formation or none in September reflects this ongoing suppression, tempered by uncertainty over whether a late-season wave could organize before October amid diverging model guidance on shear trends.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
マーケット開始日： Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
音量
$435終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/As of early September 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced five named tropical storms but zero hurricanes, far below the climatological average first-hurricane date near August 11. Persistent El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region while promoting drier mid-level air, both of which strongly suppress intensification of tropical cyclones into hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph). The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no formation expected in the next seven days, keeping near-term probabilities low. Trader consensus around late-September formation or none in September reflects this ongoing suppression, tempered by uncertainty over whether a late-season wave could organize before October amid diverging model guidance on shear trends.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
音量
$435終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...As of early September 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced five named tropical storms but zero hurricanes, far below the climatological average first-hurricane date near August 11. Persistent El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region while promoting drier mid-level air, both of which strongly suppress intensification of tropical cyclones into hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph). The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no formation expected in the next seven days, keeping near-term probabilities low. Trader consensus around late-September formation or none in September reflects this ongoing suppression, tempered by uncertainty over whether a late-season wave could organize before October amid diverging model guidance on shear trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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