Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index around R+10, driven by its rural and agricultural character in central Washington including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s December 2025 retirement opened the race, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced a clear partisan split, with Republican Amanda McKinney advancing at approximately 35% and Democrat John Duresky at 30%, ahead of other GOP contenders. This outcome, combined with the district’s consistent Republican performance in prior cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure, sustains trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. No major polling shifts or candidate developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$45,194 Vol.
$45,194 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
90%
民主党
8%
$45,194 Vol.
$45,194 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$24,210 Vol.
90%
民主党
$20,984 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index around R+10, driven by its rural and agricultural character in central Washington including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s December 2025 retirement opened the race, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced a clear partisan split, with Republican Amanda McKinney advancing at approximately 35% and Democrat John Duresky at 30%, ahead of other GOP contenders. This outcome, combined with the district’s consistent Republican performance in prior cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure, sustains trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. No major polling shifts or candidate developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$45,194終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index around R+10, driven by its rural and agricultural character in central Washington including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s December 2025 retirement opened the race, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced a clear partisan split, with Republican Amanda McKinney advancing at approximately 35% and Democrat John Duresky at 30%, ahead of other GOP contenders. This outcome, combined with the district’s consistent Republican performance in prior cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure, sustains trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. No major polling shifts or candidate developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$45,194終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index around R+10, driven by its rural and agricultural character in central Washington including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s December 2025 retirement opened the race, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced a clear partisan split, with Republican Amanda McKinney advancing at approximately 35% and Democrat John Duresky at 30%, ahead of other GOP contenders. This outcome, combined with the district’s consistent Republican performance in prior cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure, sustains trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. No major polling shifts or candidate developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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