US Treasury's June 2026 General License X, authorizing Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21 amid a memorandum of understanding with Tehran, serves as the key catalyst shaping trader views on potential reissuance of sanctions relief. The temporary waiver unlocked dollar-denominated payments, maritime services, and an estimated $8-9 billion from 67 million barrels of stranded oil, boosting Iran's export capacity toward 1.5 million barrels per day while supporting lower global crude benchmarks. Progress hinges on Iran's IAEA inspection commitments and Strait of Hormuz transit, with further relief tied to a final nuclear and security deal under negotiation. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around extension timelines, as any renewal would directly influence OPEC+ supply dynamics, Treasury yields, and energy sector valuations ahead of key diplomatic deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$342,444 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
8%
$342,444 Vol.
9月30日
$12,173 Vol.
8%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.US Treasury's June 2026 General License X, authorizing Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21 amid a memorandum of understanding with Tehran, serves as the key catalyst shaping trader views on potential reissuance of sanctions relief. The temporary waiver unlocked dollar-denominated payments, maritime services, and an estimated $8-9 billion from 67 million barrels of stranded oil, boosting Iran's export capacity toward 1.5 million barrels per day while supporting lower global crude benchmarks. Progress hinges on Iran's IAEA inspection commitments and Strait of Hormuz transit, with further relief tied to a final nuclear and security deal under negotiation. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around extension timelines, as any renewal would directly influence OPEC+ supply dynamics, Treasury yields, and energy sector valuations ahead of key diplomatic deadlines.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
音量
$342,444終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.US Treasury's June 2026 General License X, authorizing Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21 amid a memorandum of understanding with Tehran, serves as the key catalyst shaping trader views on potential reissuance of sanctions relief. The temporary waiver unlocked dollar-denominated payments, maritime services, and an estimated $8-9 billion from 67 million barrels of stranded oil, boosting Iran's export capacity toward 1.5 million barrels per day while supporting lower global crude benchmarks. Progress hinges on Iran's IAEA inspection commitments and Strait of Hormuz transit, with further relief tied to a final nuclear and security deal under negotiation. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around extension timelines, as any renewal would directly influence OPEC+ supply dynamics, Treasury yields, and energy sector valuations ahead of key diplomatic deadlines.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
音量
$342,444終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...US Treasury's June 2026 General License X, authorizing Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21 amid a memorandum of understanding with Tehran, serves as the key catalyst shaping trader views on potential reissuance of sanctions relief. The temporary waiver unlocked dollar-denominated payments, maritime services, and an estimated $8-9 billion from 67 million barrels of stranded oil, boosting Iran's export capacity toward 1.5 million barrels per day while supporting lower global crude benchmarks. Progress hinges on Iran's IAEA inspection commitments and Strait of Hormuz transit, with further relief tied to a final nuclear and security deal under negotiation. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around extension timelines, as any renewal would directly influence OPEC+ supply dynamics, Treasury yields, and energy sector valuations ahead of key diplomatic deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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