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icon for 次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）
地政学·英国労働党のリーダーシップ

次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）

icon for 次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）
地政学·英国労働党のリーダーシップ

次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）

12月 31

12月 31

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相 44%

2027年以前はいない 34%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領 6.7%

ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ - ブラジル大統領 6.1%

Polymarket

$84,148 Vol.

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相 44%

2027年以前はいない 34%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領 6.7%

ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ - ブラジル大統領 6.1%

Polymarket

$84,148 Vol.

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相

$6,446 Vol.

38%

2027年以前はいない

$33,859 Vol.

34%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領

$1,627 Vol.

7%

ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ - ブラジル大統領

$2,871 Vol.

6%

ゼレンスキー - ウクライナ大統領

$2,985 Vol.

4%

マクロン - フランス大統領

$1,630 Vol.

3%

ロドリゲス - ベネズエラ暫定大統領

$6,378 Vol.

3%

ルコルニュ - フランス首相

$3,492 Vol.

3%

ミレイ - アルゼンチン大統領

$1,200 Vol.

3%

トランプ - アメリカ合衆国大統領

$1,821 Vol.

3%

サンチェス - スペイン首相

$1,987 Vol.

3%

アッバス - パレスチナ大統領

$2,270 Vol.

2%

高市 - 日本首相

$1,573 Vol.

2%

プーチン - ロシア大統領

$1,788 Vol.

2%

ニューサム - カリフォルニア州知事

$1,274 Vol.

1%

金正恩 - 北朝鮮の最高指導者

$1,691 Vol.

1%

メルツ - ドイツ首相

$2,175 Vol.

1%

シェインバウム - メキシコ大統領

$2,068 Vol.

1%

エルドアン - トルコ大統領

$2,522 Vol.

1%

習近平 - 中国共産党中央委員会総書記

$1,461 Vol.

<1%

アルバニージー - オーストラリア首相

$1,368 Vol.

<1%

シャラー - シリア大統領

$1,661 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The market for the next leader removed from power before 2027 stays tightly bunched because most listed figures hold fixed terms or institutional positions extending well into 2027 or later, with no confirmed early elections, constitutional crises, or health events in the past month that would shift removal odds. Trader consensus around 44-45% for “none” and the top individual names reflects this stability, balanced against low-probability tail risks such as sudden cabinet collapses, legislative no-confidence votes, or external shocks. Recent polling aggregates and official statements show incumbents like Trump, Macron, and Erdoğan maintaining support levels consistent with their full terms, while others face routine coalition negotiations or scheduled votes that have not yet produced decisive momentum. Separation could occur through verified developments including snap parliamentary dissolutions, major corruption rulings, or sudden vacancies within the next six months, which would allow traders to reassess individual probabilities relative to the broad field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$84,148
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The market for the next leader removed from power before 2027 stays tightly bunched because most listed figures hold fixed terms or institutional positions extending well into 2027 or later, with no confirmed early elections, constitutional crises, or health events in the past month that would shift removal odds. Trader consensus around 44-45% for “none” and the top individual names reflects this stability, balanced against low-probability tail risks such as sudden cabinet collapses, legislative no-confidence votes, or external shocks. Recent polling aggregates and official statements show incumbents like Trump, Macron, and Erdoğan maintaining support levels consistent with their full terms, while others face routine coalition negotiations or scheduled votes that have not yet produced decisive momentum. Separation could occur through verified developments including snap parliamentary dissolutions, major corruption rulings, or sudden vacancies within the next six months, which would allow traders to reassess individual probabilities relative to the broad field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$84,148
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）」はPolymarket上の22個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相」で38%、次いで「2027年以前はいない」が34%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、38¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に38%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）」は$84.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jun 30, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）」で取引するには、このページに記載されている22個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）」の現在のフロントランナーは「ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相」で38%であり、市場がこの結果に38%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「2027年以前はいない」で34%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？ （スターマー、ペトロは不可）」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。