Michigan's 11th congressional district, an open seat after Democratic incumbent Haley Stevens retired to pursue a Senate bid, remains firmly aligned with the Democratic Party based on its Oakland County suburban composition and recent voting patterns. State Senator Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary with a clear margin, positioning the party for continued control in a district that delivered comfortable victories in prior cycles. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a constituency where Democratic candidates have maintained consistent advantages. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals alongside limited polling shifts and fundraising trends. A Republican upset would require substantial national momentum, unusually high turnout differentials, or unforeseen developments in the final months before the November election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$76,292 Vol.
$76,292 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$76,292 Vol.
$76,292 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$54,270 Vol.
96%
共和党
$22,022 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan's 11th congressional district, an open seat after Democratic incumbent Haley Stevens retired to pursue a Senate bid, remains firmly aligned with the Democratic Party based on its Oakland County suburban composition and recent voting patterns. State Senator Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary with a clear margin, positioning the party for continued control in a district that delivered comfortable victories in prior cycles. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a constituency where Democratic candidates have maintained consistent advantages. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals alongside limited polling shifts and fundraising trends. A Republican upset would require substantial national momentum, unusually high turnout differentials, or unforeseen developments in the final months before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$76,292終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan's 11th congressional district, an open seat after Democratic incumbent Haley Stevens retired to pursue a Senate bid, remains firmly aligned with the Democratic Party based on its Oakland County suburban composition and recent voting patterns. State Senator Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary with a clear margin, positioning the party for continued control in a district that delivered comfortable victories in prior cycles. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a constituency where Democratic candidates have maintained consistent advantages. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals alongside limited polling shifts and fundraising trends. A Republican upset would require substantial national momentum, unusually high turnout differentials, or unforeseen developments in the final months before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$76,292終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan's 11th congressional district, an open seat after Democratic incumbent Haley Stevens retired to pursue a Senate bid, remains firmly aligned with the Democratic Party based on its Oakland County suburban composition and recent voting patterns. State Senator Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary with a clear margin, positioning the party for continued control in a district that delivered comfortable victories in prior cycles. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a constituency where Democratic candidates have maintained consistent advantages. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals alongside limited polling shifts and fundraising trends. A Republican upset would require substantial national momentum, unusually high turnout differentials, or unforeseen developments in the final months before the November election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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