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icon for イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?

イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?

icon for イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?

イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?

$1,191,775 Vol.

2026/12/31
Polymarket

$1,191,775 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$350,557 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement on June 26, 2026, that designates two pilot zones—one south of the Litani River and a small area north—for phased Israeli redeployment once the Lebanese Armed Forces verify disarmament of Hezbollah and dismantle associated infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that further withdrawals beyond these limited zones remain conditions-based rather than time-bound, with Israel retaining its broader security zone until Hezbollah poses no threat. Hezbollah has rejected the deal, while the agreement creates a U.S.-facilitated Military Coordination Group to oversee implementation. No additional major redeployments have occurred since the signing, leaving trader assessments centered on progress toward verified disarmament in the pilot areas.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$1,191,775
終了日
2026/09/01
マーケット開始日
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement on June 26, 2026, that designates two pilot zones—one south of the Litani River and a small area north—for phased Israeli redeployment once the Lebanese Armed Forces verify disarmament of Hezbollah and dismantle associated infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that further withdrawals beyond these limited zones remain conditions-based rather than time-bound, with Israel retaining its broader security zone until Hezbollah poses no threat. Hezbollah has rejected the deal, while the agreement creates a U.S.-facilitated Military Coordination Group to oversee implementation. No additional major redeployments have occurred since the signing, leaving trader assessments centered on progress toward verified disarmament in the pilot areas.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$1,191,775
終了日
2026/09/01
マーケット開始日
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「December 31」で17%、次いで「6月15日」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、17¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に17%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」は$1.2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています(Jun 7, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「December 31」で17%であり、市場がこの結果に17%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「6月15日」で0%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。