Ongoing regional tensions, including Iran's September 3 missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE alongside the Israel Defense Forces' clearance of a major Hezbollah underground facility in southern Lebanon, continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace restrictions. These developments occur amid a fragile ceasefire framework between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah, with recurrent violations reported in Lebanon and persistent EASA advisories urging caution over Israeli airspace through late September. Traders monitor escalation signals from Iranian officials and Israeli military operations, as prior rounds of strikes in June prompted temporary regional flight groundings and NOTAM extensions. Scheduled diplomatic or military responses within the coming weeks could influence any decisions on civilian flight operations at Ben Gurion Airport.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,762,201 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
66%
$28,762,201 Vol.
9月30日
$1,169,042 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions, including Iran's September 3 missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE alongside the Israel Defense Forces' clearance of a major Hezbollah underground facility in southern Lebanon, continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace restrictions. These developments occur amid a fragile ceasefire framework between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah, with recurrent violations reported in Lebanon and persistent EASA advisories urging caution over Israeli airspace through late September. Traders monitor escalation signals from Iranian officials and Israeli military operations, as prior rounds of strikes in June prompted temporary regional flight groundings and NOTAM extensions. Scheduled diplomatic or military responses within the coming weeks could influence any decisions on civilian flight operations at Ben Gurion Airport.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
音量
$28,762,201終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions, including Iran's September 3 missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE alongside the Israel Defense Forces' clearance of a major Hezbollah underground facility in southern Lebanon, continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace restrictions. These developments occur amid a fragile ceasefire framework between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah, with recurrent violations reported in Lebanon and persistent EASA advisories urging caution over Israeli airspace through late September. Traders monitor escalation signals from Iranian officials and Israeli military operations, as prior rounds of strikes in June prompted temporary regional flight groundings and NOTAM extensions. Scheduled diplomatic or military responses within the coming weeks could influence any decisions on civilian flight operations at Ben Gurion Airport.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$28,762,201終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions, including Iran's September 3 missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE alongside the Israel Defense Forces' clearance of a major Hezbollah underground facility in southern Lebanon, continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace restrictions. These developments occur amid a fragile ceasefire framework between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah, with recurrent violations reported in Lebanon and persistent EASA advisories urging caution over Israeli airspace through late September. Traders monitor escalation signals from Iranian officials and Israeli military operations, as prior rounds of strikes in June prompted temporary regional flight groundings and NOTAM extensions. Scheduled diplomatic or military responses within the coming weeks could influence any decisions on civilian flight operations at Ben Gurion Airport.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問