Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 damaged Iran's main enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, burying much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile under rubble and limiting access even for Iranian recovery efforts. IAEA inspectors have been denied entry since mid-2025, leaving the agency unable to confirm enrichment status, centrifuge inventories, or material locations, while satellite imagery shows limited activity at damaged facilities and some construction at secondary sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Iran's program remains largely dormant amid ongoing diplomatic talks and risks of renewed strikes. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these physical and verification constraints. A rapid policy reversal by Iranian leadership or undetected progress at undeclared locations could still shift timelines within the short window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$251,672 Vol.
$251,672 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$251,672 Vol.
$251,672 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 damaged Iran's main enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, burying much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile under rubble and limiting access even for Iranian recovery efforts. IAEA inspectors have been denied entry since mid-2025, leaving the agency unable to confirm enrichment status, centrifuge inventories, or material locations, while satellite imagery shows limited activity at damaged facilities and some construction at secondary sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Iran's program remains largely dormant amid ongoing diplomatic talks and risks of renewed strikes. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these physical and verification constraints. A rapid policy reversal by Iranian leadership or undetected progress at undeclared locations could still shift timelines within the short window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$251,672終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 damaged Iran's main enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, burying much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile under rubble and limiting access even for Iranian recovery efforts. IAEA inspectors have been denied entry since mid-2025, leaving the agency unable to confirm enrichment status, centrifuge inventories, or material locations, while satellite imagery shows limited activity at damaged facilities and some construction at secondary sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Iran's program remains largely dormant amid ongoing diplomatic talks and risks of renewed strikes. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these physical and verification constraints. A rapid policy reversal by Iranian leadership or undetected progress at undeclared locations could still shift timelines within the short window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$251,672終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 damaged Iran's main enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, burying much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile under rubble and limiting access even for Iranian recovery efforts. IAEA inspectors have been denied entry since mid-2025, leaving the agency unable to confirm enrichment status, centrifuge inventories, or material locations, while satellite imagery shows limited activity at damaged facilities and some construction at secondary sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Iran's program remains largely dormant amid ongoing diplomatic talks and risks of renewed strikes. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these physical and verification constraints. A rapid policy reversal by Iranian leadership or undetected progress at undeclared locations could still shift timelines within the short window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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