Persistent Houthi missile threats and a fresh ground offensive near the strait, set against escalating Hormuz disruptions, continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb volumes well below 2023 baselines of roughly 60–80 daily transits. Recent weekly data show averages near 40–43 vessels per day amid rerouting and selective risk acceptance by non-Western operators, placing trader consensus firmly in the 170–229 range for the September 7 week. The near-even split between the 170–189 and 190–209 brackets reflects uncertainty over whether incremental Suez recovery or renewed attacks will shift the count, with any confirmed incident or naval advisory likely to widen spreads. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positioning on these volatile security and rerouting dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月7日の週にバブ・エル・マンデブ海峡を通過する船は何隻ですか？
9月7日の週にバブ・エル・マンデブ海峡を通過する船は何隻ですか？
190～209 33%
170〜189 32%
210-229 24%
170未満 8%
$36,773 Vol.
$36,773 Vol.
2026/09/13
170未満
8%
170〜189
32%
190～209
33%
210-229
24%
230隻以上
7%
190～209 33%
170〜189 32%
210-229 24%
170未満 8%
$36,773 Vol.
$36,773 Vol.
2026/09/13
170未満
$13,857 Vol.
8%
170〜189
$305 Vol.
32%
190～209
$603 Vol.
33%
210-229
$696 Vol.
24%
230隻以上
$21,312 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi missile threats and a fresh ground offensive near the strait, set against escalating Hormuz disruptions, continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb volumes well below 2023 baselines of roughly 60–80 daily transits. Recent weekly data show averages near 40–43 vessels per day amid rerouting and selective risk acceptance by non-Western operators, placing trader consensus firmly in the 170–229 range for the September 7 week. The near-even split between the 170–189 and 190–209 brackets reflects uncertainty over whether incremental Suez recovery or renewed attacks will shift the count, with any confirmed incident or naval advisory likely to widen spreads. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positioning on these volatile security and rerouting dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
音量
$36,773終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi missile threats and a fresh ground offensive near the strait, set against escalating Hormuz disruptions, continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb volumes well below 2023 baselines of roughly 60–80 daily transits. Recent weekly data show averages near 40–43 vessels per day amid rerouting and selective risk acceptance by non-Western operators, placing trader consensus firmly in the 170–229 range for the September 7 week. The near-even split between the 170–189 and 190–209 brackets reflects uncertainty over whether incremental Suez recovery or renewed attacks will shift the count, with any confirmed incident or naval advisory likely to widen spreads. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positioning on these volatile security and rerouting dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$36,773終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi missile threats and a fresh ground offensive near the strait, set against escalating Hormuz disruptions, continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb volumes well below 2023 baselines of roughly 60–80 daily transits. Recent weekly data show averages near 40–43 vessels per day amid rerouting and selective risk acceptance by non-Western operators, placing trader consensus firmly in the 170–229 range for the September 7 week. The near-even split between the 170–189 and 190–209 brackets reflects uncertainty over whether incremental Suez recovery or renewed attacks will shift the count, with any confirmed incident or naval advisory likely to widen spreads. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positioning on these volatile security and rerouting dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問