**Forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 19, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 28°C (57%) and 29°C (21%).** Persistent northeast flow, elevated humidity near 75–80%, and a 40–70% chance of light rain or showers—driven by a passing disturbance—limit daytime heating and favor the lower end of recent highs. Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and GFS ensembles shows afternoon peaks clustered around 28–29°C, with cloud cover preventing stronger insolation. Traders appear to have incorporated these stable short-range runs, which show little model spread and no rapid warming trend, keeping probabilities tightly focused on the 27–29°C band while assigning minimal weight to outliers above 30°C or below 27°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月19日の上海の最高気温は？
9月19日の上海の最高気温は？
28°C 56%
29℃ 22%
27°C 18%
30℃ 5%
新規
$10,684 Vol.
新規
$10,684 Vol.
2026/09/19
25℃以下
<1%
26℃
2%
27°C
18%
28°C
56%
29℃
22%
30℃
5%
31℃
1%
32℃
1%
33℃
<1%
34℃
<1%
35℃以上
<1%
28°C 56%
29℃ 22%
27°C 18%
30℃ 5%
新規
$10,684 Vol.
新規
$10,684 Vol.
2026/09/19
25℃以下
$125 Vol.
<1%
26℃
$605 Vol.
2%
27°C
$4,239 Vol.
18%
28°C
$2,072 Vol.
56%
29℃
$1,456 Vol.
22%
30℃
$581 Vol.
5%
31℃
$890 Vol.
1%
32℃
$230 Vol.
1%
33℃
$155 Vol.
<1%
34℃
$241 Vol.
<1%
35℃以上
$200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 19, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 28°C (57%) and 29°C (21%).** Persistent northeast flow, elevated humidity near 75–80%, and a 40–70% chance of light rain or showers—driven by a passing disturbance—limit daytime heating and favor the lower end of recent highs. Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and GFS ensembles shows afternoon peaks clustered around 28–29°C, with cloud cover preventing stronger insolation. Traders appear to have incorporated these stable short-range runs, which show little model spread and no rapid warming trend, keeping probabilities tightly focused on the 27–29°C band while assigning minimal weight to outliers above 30°C or below 27°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$10,684終了日
2026/09/19マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 19, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 28°C (57%) and 29°C (21%).** Persistent northeast flow, elevated humidity near 75–80%, and a 40–70% chance of light rain or showers—driven by a passing disturbance—limit daytime heating and favor the lower end of recent highs. Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and GFS ensembles shows afternoon peaks clustered around 28–29°C, with cloud cover preventing stronger insolation. Traders appear to have incorporated these stable short-range runs, which show little model spread and no rapid warming trend, keeping probabilities tightly focused on the 27–29°C band while assigning minimal weight to outliers above 30°C or below 27°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$10,684終了日
2026/09/19マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 19, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 28°C (57%) and 29°C (21%).** Persistent northeast flow, elevated humidity near 75–80%, and a 40–70% chance of light rain or showers—driven by a passing disturbance—limit daytime heating and favor the lower end of recent highs. Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and GFS ensembles shows afternoon peaks clustered around 28–29°C, with cloud cover preventing stronger insolation. Traders appear to have incorporated these stable short-range runs, which show little model spread and no rapid warming trend, keeping probabilities tightly focused on the 27–29°C band while assigning minimal weight to outliers above 30°C or below 27°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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