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icon for フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?

フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?

icon for フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?

フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?

12月 31

12月 31

はい

18% 確率
Polymarket

$486,176 Vol.

はい

18% 確率
Polymarket

$486,176 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Friedrich Merz has governed since May 2025 through a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition holding a Bundestag majority, providing institutional stability despite his low approval ratings of around 15-20 percent satisfaction. Recent state election pressures and AfD gains have fueled speculation about internal party challenges or a possible chancellor switch, yet no successful no-confidence motion or leadership revolt has materialized by mid-2026. A July cabinet reshuffle and July reform package on taxes, labor, and pensions reflect ongoing efforts to address economic stagnation, but these have not altered the high procedural bar for early removal in Germany's parliamentary system. Traders assign an 82.5 percent probability he remains in office through year-end, reflecting the coalition's procedural resilience and the high bar for early removal in Germany's parliamentary system. Upcoming September 2026 regional votes may test support but appear unlikely to trigger resignation before 2027 absent a major shift in party dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$486,176
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:35 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Friedrich Merz has governed since May 2025 through a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition holding a Bundestag majority, providing institutional stability despite his low approval ratings of around 15-20 percent satisfaction. Recent state election pressures and AfD gains have fueled speculation about internal party challenges or a possible chancellor switch, yet no successful no-confidence motion or leadership revolt has materialized by mid-2026. A July cabinet reshuffle and July reform package on taxes, labor, and pensions reflect ongoing efforts to address economic stagnation, but these have not altered the high procedural bar for early removal in Germany's parliamentary system. Traders assign an 82.5 percent probability he remains in office through year-end, reflecting the coalition's procedural resilience and the high bar for early removal in Germany's parliamentary system. Upcoming September 2026 regional votes may test support but appear unlikely to trigger resignation before 2027 absent a major shift in party dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$486,176
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:35 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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よくある質問

「フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年より前にフリードリッヒ・メルツがドイツの首相を退任するか?」で18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、18¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に18%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?」は$486.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?」の現在のフロントランナーは「2027年より前にフリードリッヒ・メルツがドイツの首相を退任するか?」で18%であり、市場がこの結果に18%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。