Friedrich Merz has governed since May 2025 through a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition holding a Bundestag majority, providing institutional stability despite his low approval ratings of around 15-20 percent satisfaction. Recent state election pressures and AfD gains have fueled speculation about internal party challenges or a possible chancellor switch, yet no successful no-confidence motion or leadership revolt has materialized by mid-2026. A July cabinet reshuffle and July reform package on taxes, labor, and pensions reflect ongoing efforts to address economic stagnation, but these have not altered the high procedural bar for early removal in Germany's parliamentary system. Traders assign an 82.5 percent probability he remains in office through year-end, reflecting the coalition's procedural resilience and the high bar for early removal in Germany's parliamentary system. Upcoming September 2026 regional votes may test support but appear unlikely to trigger resignation before 2027 absent a major shift in party dynamics.