Martial law in Ukraine, extended by parliament through October 2026 and renewed in 90-day increments since 2022, legally prohibits presidential elections under the constitution. This framework allows incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy to remain in office past his 2019 term until a successor is sworn in, with the next vote not possible before late 2026 at the earliest. Recent diplomatic efforts, including proposals for ceasefire and security guarantees conveyed to the United States, have not produced the conditions Zelenskyy and lawmakers cite as prerequisites for voting. Public sentiment and parliamentary consensus continue to favor postponement until active hostilities end, while no verified challenges to his tenure or early resignation signals have emerged. Traders price the low probability of removal by year-end on these structural and wartime barriers.