Russia's authoritarian system remains consolidated under President Vladimir Putin following his 2024 reelection and prior constitutional changes extending potential rule to 2036. Elite networks show no credible fractures capable of organizing a coup, with security services and military high command integrated into the regime through patronage and mutual dependence. Reports from May 2026 citing European intelligence on tightened Kremlin security and coup fears—tied to March concerns and sidelined figures like Sergei Shoigu—reflected elite paranoia amid the Ukraine conflict rather than active plotting. No verified attempts or mass unrest have materialized by mid-August 2026. Traders assign low probability to an event this year given the regime's historical coup-proofing and absence of triggering institutional or societal shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7% 確率
$121,498 Vol.
$121,498 Vol.
2026/12/31
7% 確率
$121,498 Vol.
$121,498 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's authoritarian system remains consolidated under President Vladimir Putin following his 2024 reelection and prior constitutional changes extending potential rule to 2036. Elite networks show no credible fractures capable of organizing a coup, with security services and military high command integrated into the regime through patronage and mutual dependence. Reports from May 2026 citing European intelligence on tightened Kremlin security and coup fears—tied to March concerns and sidelined figures like Sergei Shoigu—reflected elite paranoia amid the Ukraine conflict rather than active plotting. No verified attempts or mass unrest have materialized by mid-August 2026. Traders assign low probability to an event this year given the regime's historical coup-proofing and absence of triggering institutional or societal shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
音量
$121,498終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's authoritarian system remains consolidated under President Vladimir Putin following his 2024 reelection and prior constitutional changes extending potential rule to 2036. Elite networks show no credible fractures capable of organizing a coup, with security services and military high command integrated into the regime through patronage and mutual dependence. Reports from May 2026 citing European intelligence on tightened Kremlin security and coup fears—tied to March concerns and sidelined figures like Sergei Shoigu—reflected elite paranoia amid the Ukraine conflict rather than active plotting. No verified attempts or mass unrest have materialized by mid-August 2026. Traders assign low probability to an event this year given the regime's historical coup-proofing and absence of triggering institutional or societal shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$121,498終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's authoritarian system remains consolidated under President Vladimir Putin following his 2024 reelection and prior constitutional changes extending potential rule to 2036. Elite networks show no credible fractures capable of organizing a coup, with security services and military high command integrated into the regime through patronage and mutual dependence. Reports from May 2026 citing European intelligence on tightened Kremlin security and coup fears—tied to March concerns and sidelined figures like Sergei Shoigu—reflected elite paranoia amid the Ukraine conflict rather than active plotting. No verified attempts or mass unrest have materialized by mid-August 2026. Traders assign low probability to an event this year given the regime's historical coup-proofing and absence of triggering institutional or societal shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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