Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through extensive anti-corruption purges of the People's Liberation Army, including the January 2026 investigations of top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, has reinforced trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These actions, which removed multiple Central Military Commission members without evident resistance or factional backlash, align with patterns of centralized control under the Chinese Communist Party. Official announcements frame the moves as disciplinary, while independent analyses highlight the resulting opacity and loyalty emphasis in military command structures. With the CMC reduced to Xi and one vice chairman by mid-2026 and subsequent general promotions, the absence of verifiable challenges sustains the 95.5% implied probability for "No." Rare disruptive factors, such as unforeseen leadership health events or severe external shocks fracturing elite unity, remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$154,289 Vol.
$154,289 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$154,289 Vol.
$154,289 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through extensive anti-corruption purges of the People's Liberation Army, including the January 2026 investigations of top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, has reinforced trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These actions, which removed multiple Central Military Commission members without evident resistance or factional backlash, align with patterns of centralized control under the Chinese Communist Party. Official announcements frame the moves as disciplinary, while independent analyses highlight the resulting opacity and loyalty emphasis in military command structures. With the CMC reduced to Xi and one vice chairman by mid-2026 and subsequent general promotions, the absence of verifiable challenges sustains the 95.5% implied probability for "No." Rare disruptive factors, such as unforeseen leadership health events or severe external shocks fracturing elite unity, remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$154,289終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through extensive anti-corruption purges of the People's Liberation Army, including the January 2026 investigations of top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, has reinforced trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These actions, which removed multiple Central Military Commission members without evident resistance or factional backlash, align with patterns of centralized control under the Chinese Communist Party. Official announcements frame the moves as disciplinary, while independent analyses highlight the resulting opacity and loyalty emphasis in military command structures. With the CMC reduced to Xi and one vice chairman by mid-2026 and subsequent general promotions, the absence of verifiable challenges sustains the 95.5% implied probability for "No." Rare disruptive factors, such as unforeseen leadership health events or severe external shocks fracturing elite unity, remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$154,289終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through extensive anti-corruption purges of the People's Liberation Army, including the January 2026 investigations of top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, has reinforced trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These actions, which removed multiple Central Military Commission members without evident resistance or factional backlash, align with patterns of centralized control under the Chinese Communist Party. Official announcements frame the moves as disciplinary, while independent analyses highlight the resulting opacity and loyalty emphasis in military command structures. With the CMC reduced to Xi and one vice chairman by mid-2026 and subsequent general promotions, the absence of verifiable challenges sustains the 95.5% implied probability for "No." Rare disruptive factors, such as unforeseen leadership health events or severe external shocks fracturing elite unity, remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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