Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior figures like General Zhang Youxia, has reinforced trader views that no coup attempt is likely before 2027. China's closed political system, extensive surveillance apparatus, and the PLA's demonstrated obedience to central leadership limit organized challenges from within the Communist Party or armed forces. Succession discussions ahead of the 2027 Party Congress focus on managed personnel changes rather than power struggles capable of producing a coup. While sudden leadership health events, acute economic shocks, or external crises could theoretically alter dynamics, the absence of credible recent signals of factional revolt or institutional fracture underpins the 95.5% implied probability for "No."
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$154,289 Vol.
$154,289 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$154,289 Vol.
$154,289 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior figures like General Zhang Youxia, has reinforced trader views that no coup attempt is likely before 2027. China's closed political system, extensive surveillance apparatus, and the PLA's demonstrated obedience to central leadership limit organized challenges from within the Communist Party or armed forces. Succession discussions ahead of the 2027 Party Congress focus on managed personnel changes rather than power struggles capable of producing a coup. While sudden leadership health events, acute economic shocks, or external crises could theoretically alter dynamics, the absence of credible recent signals of factional revolt or institutional fracture underpins the 95.5% implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$154,289終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior figures like General Zhang Youxia, has reinforced trader views that no coup attempt is likely before 2027. China's closed political system, extensive surveillance apparatus, and the PLA's demonstrated obedience to central leadership limit organized challenges from within the Communist Party or armed forces. Succession discussions ahead of the 2027 Party Congress focus on managed personnel changes rather than power struggles capable of producing a coup. While sudden leadership health events, acute economic shocks, or external crises could theoretically alter dynamics, the absence of credible recent signals of factional revolt or institutional fracture underpins the 95.5% implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$154,289終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior figures like General Zhang Youxia, has reinforced trader views that no coup attempt is likely before 2027. China's closed political system, extensive surveillance apparatus, and the PLA's demonstrated obedience to central leadership limit organized challenges from within the Communist Party or armed forces. Succession discussions ahead of the 2027 Party Congress focus on managed personnel changes rather than power struggles capable of producing a coup. While sudden leadership health events, acute economic shocks, or external crises could theoretically alter dynamics, the absence of credible recent signals of factional revolt or institutional fracture underpins the 95.5% implied probability for "No."
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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