Arizona’s 1st congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election following incumbent Republican David Schweikert’s withdrawal to pursue the governorship. The July 21 primaries produced Democratic nominee Amish Shah, a former state legislator and emergency physician who previously challenged Schweikert, and Republican nominee Jay Feely, a former NFL player and political outsider endorsed by Donald Trump. Cook Political Report rates the open seat a toss-up, noting the district’s narrow partisan leanings after recent presidential results. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 75.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting assessments of the national midterm environment, candidate profiles, and the district’s recent movement toward the center, while the Republican nominee holds 25.5%. Upcoming general-election polling and campaign developments through the fall will continue to shape positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
74%
共和党
27%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$5,486 Vol.
74%
共和党
$990 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona’s 1st congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election following incumbent Republican David Schweikert’s withdrawal to pursue the governorship. The July 21 primaries produced Democratic nominee Amish Shah, a former state legislator and emergency physician who previously challenged Schweikert, and Republican nominee Jay Feely, a former NFL player and political outsider endorsed by Donald Trump. Cook Political Report rates the open seat a toss-up, noting the district’s narrow partisan leanings after recent presidential results. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 75.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting assessments of the national midterm environment, candidate profiles, and the district’s recent movement toward the center, while the Republican nominee holds 25.5%. Upcoming general-election polling and campaign developments through the fall will continue to shape positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
音量
$6,477終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona’s 1st congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election following incumbent Republican David Schweikert’s withdrawal to pursue the governorship. The July 21 primaries produced Democratic nominee Amish Shah, a former state legislator and emergency physician who previously challenged Schweikert, and Republican nominee Jay Feely, a former NFL player and political outsider endorsed by Donald Trump. Cook Political Report rates the open seat a toss-up, noting the district’s narrow partisan leanings after recent presidential results. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 75.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting assessments of the national midterm environment, candidate profiles, and the district’s recent movement toward the center, while the Republican nominee holds 25.5%. Upcoming general-election polling and campaign developments through the fall will continue to shape positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,477終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona’s 1st congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election following incumbent Republican David Schweikert’s withdrawal to pursue the governorship. The July 21 primaries produced Democratic nominee Amish Shah, a former state legislator and emergency physician who previously challenged Schweikert, and Republican nominee Jay Feely, a former NFL player and political outsider endorsed by Donald Trump. Cook Political Report rates the open seat a toss-up, noting the district’s narrow partisan leanings after recent presidential results. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 75.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting assessments of the national midterm environment, candidate profiles, and the district’s recent movement toward the center, while the Republican nominee holds 25.5%. Upcoming general-election polling and campaign developments through the fall will continue to shape positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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