**MLSTP holds a commanding lead in the São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election market due to its decisive backing of President Carlos Vila Nova’s July 2026 re-election victory (55.9% of the vote as an independent).** This alignment followed Vila Nova’s 2025 dismissal of ADI Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada, which triggered internal ADI fractures, leadership challenges, and a split between the party’s parliamentary majority and the executive. MLSTP, under Américo Barros, now benefits from presidential momentum and institutional positioning, while ADI’s cohesion has weakened ahead of the September 27 vote for all 55 National Assembly seats. The proportional representation system and recent political realignments favor MLSTP forming or leading the next government. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 90.5%, with ADI at 10.5%. Late developments such as coalition negotiations, turnout shifts in key districts, or renewed ADI unity could still alter probabilities before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni parlamentari a São Tomé e Príncipe
Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari a São Tomé e Príncipe
MLSTP 91%
ADI 11%
Basta <1%
PCD <1%
$15,039 Vol.
$15,039 Vol.
26 set 2026
MLSTP
91%
ADI
11%
Basta
<1%
PCD
<1%
MDFM
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
<1%
Nossa Terra
<1%
MLSTP 91%
ADI 11%
Basta <1%
PCD <1%
$15,039 Vol.
$15,039 Vol.
26 set 2026
MLSTP
$7,039 Vol.
91%
ADI
$4,624 Vol.
11%
Basta
$1,028 Vol.
<1%
PCD
$612 Vol.
<1%
MDFM
$662 Vol.
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
$537 Vol.
<1%
Nossa Terra
$537 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.**MLSTP holds a commanding lead in the São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election market due to its decisive backing of President Carlos Vila Nova’s July 2026 re-election victory (55.9% of the vote as an independent).** This alignment followed Vila Nova’s 2025 dismissal of ADI Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada, which triggered internal ADI fractures, leadership challenges, and a split between the party’s parliamentary majority and the executive. MLSTP, under Américo Barros, now benefits from presidential momentum and institutional positioning, while ADI’s cohesion has weakened ahead of the September 27 vote for all 55 National Assembly seats. The proportional representation system and recent political realignments favor MLSTP forming or leading the next government. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 90.5%, with ADI at 10.5%. Late developments such as coalition negotiations, turnout shifts in key districts, or renewed ADI unity could still alter probabilities before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$15,039Data di fine
27 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.**MLSTP holds a commanding lead in the São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election market due to its decisive backing of President Carlos Vila Nova’s July 2026 re-election victory (55.9% of the vote as an independent).** This alignment followed Vila Nova’s 2025 dismissal of ADI Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada, which triggered internal ADI fractures, leadership challenges, and a split between the party’s parliamentary majority and the executive. MLSTP, under Américo Barros, now benefits from presidential momentum and institutional positioning, while ADI’s cohesion has weakened ahead of the September 27 vote for all 55 National Assembly seats. The proportional representation system and recent political realignments favor MLSTP forming or leading the next government. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 90.5%, with ADI at 10.5%. Late developments such as coalition negotiations, turnout shifts in key districts, or renewed ADI unity could still alter probabilities before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$15,039Data di fine
27 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**MLSTP holds a commanding lead in the São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election market due to its decisive backing of President Carlos Vila Nova’s July 2026 re-election victory (55.9% of the vote as an independent).** This alignment followed Vila Nova’s 2025 dismissal of ADI Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada, which triggered internal ADI fractures, leadership challenges, and a split between the party’s parliamentary majority and the executive. MLSTP, under Américo Barros, now benefits from presidential momentum and institutional positioning, while ADI’s cohesion has weakened ahead of the September 27 vote for all 55 National Assembly seats. The proportional representation system and recent political realignments favor MLSTP forming or leading the next government. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 90.5%, with ADI at 10.5%. Late developments such as coalition negotiations, turnout shifts in key districts, or renewed ADI unity could still alter probabilities before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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