Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and smaller parties clustered near the 5 percent threshold. This vote share has remained stable in the final weeks without a decisive late surge, leaving the AfD short of the roughly 42 seats required for an absolute majority in the 83-seat parliament in most seat-projection models. Fragmentation among the CDU, Linke, SPD, BSW, Greens, and FDP reduces the likelihood that enough minor parties fall below the threshold to convert the AfD’s plurality into a seat majority. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome an implied probability of 68.5 percent, consistent with the absence of polling momentum or campaign shifts that would push AfD support decisively higher before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
30% probabilità
$299,606 Vol.
$299,606 Vol.
5 set 2026
30% probabilità
$299,606 Vol.
$299,606 Vol.
5 set 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and smaller parties clustered near the 5 percent threshold. This vote share has remained stable in the final weeks without a decisive late surge, leaving the AfD short of the roughly 42 seats required for an absolute majority in the 83-seat parliament in most seat-projection models. Fragmentation among the CDU, Linke, SPD, BSW, Greens, and FDP reduces the likelihood that enough minor parties fall below the threshold to convert the AfD’s plurality into a seat majority. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome an implied probability of 68.5 percent, consistent with the absence of polling momentum or campaign shifts that would push AfD support decisively higher before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$299,606Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and smaller parties clustered near the 5 percent threshold. This vote share has remained stable in the final weeks without a decisive late surge, leaving the AfD short of the roughly 42 seats required for an absolute majority in the 83-seat parliament in most seat-projection models. Fragmentation among the CDU, Linke, SPD, BSW, Greens, and FDP reduces the likelihood that enough minor parties fall below the threshold to convert the AfD’s plurality into a seat majority. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome an implied probability of 68.5 percent, consistent with the absence of polling momentum or campaign shifts that would push AfD support decisively higher before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$299,606Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and smaller parties clustered near the 5 percent threshold. This vote share has remained stable in the final weeks without a decisive late surge, leaving the AfD short of the roughly 42 seats required for an absolute majority in the 83-seat parliament in most seat-projection models. Fragmentation among the CDU, Linke, SPD, BSW, Greens, and FDP reduces the likelihood that enough minor parties fall below the threshold to convert the AfD’s plurality into a seat majority. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome an implied probability of 68.5 percent, consistent with the absence of polling momentum or campaign shifts that would push AfD support decisively higher before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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