The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a closely contested race in Laviolette–Saint-Maurice, where CAQ incumbent Marie-Louise Tardif is not seeking re-election. Projections from models updated in late August show CAQ candidate Guy Veillette and PQ candidate Élodie Murphy-Gauthier in a virtual tie for first, with projected vote shares in the low-to-mid 30s, followed by the PCQ’s Charles Paquin and the QLP’s Laurent Bélisle. The riding’s shift from a 35-point CAQ margin in 2022 reflects broader provincial dynamics, including voter movement toward the PQ in the Mauricie region and a competitive multi-party field. With nominations closing September 17 and no dominant frontrunner established in polling aggregates, trader prices remain tightly clustered, underscoring uncertainty over which candidate can consolidate support in the final weeks.