The tight race in the Groulx riding for the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election stems primarily from the August 20 announcement of Marie-Claude Sarrazin as the Parti Québécois candidate. As a prosecutor from the Gallant Commission inquiry into the SAAQclic cost overrun, she directly targets Coalition Avenir Québec governance on public finances. Incumbent CAQ MNA and Finance Minister Eric Girard faces this challenge in a suburban Laurentides district where his party previously held a strong position. Polling aggregates show the two leading contenders nearly even, with smaller shares for Liberal Julie Tourangeau and Québec solidaire's Marie-Noëlle Aubertin. Trader consensus reflected in the market prices captures the narrow margin driven by provincial backlash against the incumbent government and the absence of a decisive local shift since the writs dropped.