**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's lowest temperature on August 23, 2026, centers on model consensus for a nighttime minimum near 12–13°C, shaped by radiative cooling under high pressure.** Light westerly winds of 5–10 mph and dew points around 8–10°C promote efficient heat loss from the surface once solar heating ends, with clear to partly cloudy skies allowing longwave radiation to escape. This setup aligns with GFS and agency guidance favoring the 13°C outcome (30.5% implied probability) as the most likely, followed closely by 12°C (20%) and 11°C (19.5%). Key variables driving spread include cloud cover—thicker overnight clouds would trap heat and push the low toward 14°C or higher (low probabilities)—while calmer winds or drier air could enhance cooling to 10°C or below. Wind direction and speed modulate boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression controls how far temperatures can fall, and any shift in the stable anticyclone could alter the inversion strength. The broad distribution reflects remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing, local urban heat effects, and minor model disagreements on overnight evolution, with traders weighting recent forecast updates heavily.