Trader consensus heavily favors a minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 24, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory climatology and short-range model guidance that place typical late-August overnight lows between 26–28°C under prevailing warm, humid southerly flow. Recent observations through mid-August show mean minimum temperatures near 27.8°C, with no active cold surge or typhoon-induced cooling expected to depress readings below this threshold. Market-implied odds align with the narrow historical distribution where values dip to 25°C or lower only during rare intrusions of modified polar air. A realistic scenario that could shift probabilities involves a sharper-than-forecast wind shift or prolonged heavy rain enhancing evaporative cooling, though ensemble guidance currently assigns low likelihood to such departures before the daily minimum is recorded.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 24 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 24 agosto?
28°C 96%
27°C 2%
26°C <1%
25°C <1%
$21,384 Vol.
$21,384 Vol.
24 ago 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
96%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
28°C 96%
27°C 2%
26°C <1%
25°C <1%
$21,384 Vol.
$21,384 Vol.
24 ago 2026
21°C or below
$120 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$210 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,510 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,851 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,232 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$3,594 Vol.
2%
28°C
$5,938 Vol.
96%
29°C
$5,555 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors a minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 24, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory climatology and short-range model guidance that place typical late-August overnight lows between 26–28°C under prevailing warm, humid southerly flow. Recent observations through mid-August show mean minimum temperatures near 27.8°C, with no active cold surge or typhoon-induced cooling expected to depress readings below this threshold. Market-implied odds align with the narrow historical distribution where values dip to 25°C or lower only during rare intrusions of modified polar air. A realistic scenario that could shift probabilities involves a sharper-than-forecast wind shift or prolonged heavy rain enhancing evaporative cooling, though ensemble guidance currently assigns low likelihood to such departures before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$21,384Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors a minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 24, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory climatology and short-range model guidance that place typical late-August overnight lows between 26–28°C under prevailing warm, humid southerly flow. Recent observations through mid-August show mean minimum temperatures near 27.8°C, with no active cold surge or typhoon-induced cooling expected to depress readings below this threshold. Market-implied odds align with the narrow historical distribution where values dip to 25°C or lower only during rare intrusions of modified polar air. A realistic scenario that could shift probabilities involves a sharper-than-forecast wind shift or prolonged heavy rain enhancing evaporative cooling, though ensemble guidance currently assigns low likelihood to such departures before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,384Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 24, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory climatology and short-range model guidance that place typical late-August overnight lows between 26–28°C under prevailing warm, humid southerly flow. Recent observations through mid-August show mean minimum temperatures near 27.8°C, with no active cold surge or typhoon-induced cooling expected to depress readings below this threshold. Market-implied odds align with the narrow historical distribution where values dip to 25°C or lower only during rare intrusions of modified polar air. A realistic scenario that could shift probabilities involves a sharper-than-forecast wind shift or prolonged heavy rain enhancing evaporative cooling, though ensemble guidance currently assigns low likelihood to such departures before the daily minimum is recorded.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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