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icon for L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?
Politica·Iran

L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?

icon for L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?
Politica·Iran

L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?

$8,723,428 Vol.

15 ago 2026
Polymarket

$8,723,428 Vol.

Polymarket

15 agosto

$514,213 Vol.

9%

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.The June 2026 US-Iran MOU established a 60-day window, extendable by mutual consent, for negotiations on a final agreement addressing Iran's nuclear program, uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, frozen assets, Strait of Hormuz access, and related regional issues following the earlier conflict. As of early August 2026, the period is nearing its initial close without a completed deal. Trader sentiment reflects limited signs of imminent Iranian withdrawal, with attention on official statements from Tehran or Washington, implementation of MOU paragraphs on ceasefires and blockades, and any reported setbacks in technical talks. Extension remains an explicit option, while domestic pressures and proxy developments could influence continuation.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.

Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
Volume
$8,723,428
Data di fine
31 lug 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 6, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.The June 2026 US-Iran MOU established a 60-day window, extendable by mutual consent, for negotiations on a final agreement addressing Iran's nuclear program, uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, frozen assets, Strait of Hormuz access, and related regional issues following the earlier conflict. As of early August 2026, the period is nearing its initial close without a completed deal. Trader sentiment reflects limited signs of imminent Iranian withdrawal, with attention on official statements from Tehran or Washington, implementation of MOU paragraphs on ceasefires and blockades, and any reported setbacks in technical talks. Extension remains an explicit option, while domestic pressures and proxy developments could influence continuation.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.

Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
Volume
$8,723,428
Data di fine
31 lug 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 6, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.

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Domande frequenti

"L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "15 agosto" a 9%, seguito da "26 giugno" a 0%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 9¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 9% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?" ha generato $8.7 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jun 22, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?" è "15 agosto" a solo 9%, con "26 giugno" vicino a 0%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.

Le regole di risoluzione per "L'Iran annuncia il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.