**Current forecasts for Wellington, New Zealand, on August 24, 2026, point to a minimum temperature most likely in the 8–11°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those outcomes.** Official guidance from MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) indicates clear to fine conditions overnight with northerly or northwesterly flows, producing lows near 10–11°C at Wellington Airport or central sites, while localized radiational cooling under clear skies could dip toward 8°C in sheltered spots. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and strength of the minimum (typically pre-dawn), wind speed (stronger NW winds limit cooling), and model spread on dew points and cloud cover. Historical climatology for late August shows average overnight lows near 8–9°C, but recent days have featured milder readings (around 11–12°C) amid stable high pressure. Ensemble uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze influences keeps probabilities spread across the 8–11°C bins, with very low odds below 7°C or above 12°C reflecting limited downside risk from current setup. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Wellington le 24 août ?
La température la plus basse à Wellington le 24 août ?
7°C 52%
9°C 28%
8°C 28%
10°C 28%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
24 août 2026
5°C or below
2%
6°C
2%
7°C
52%
8°C
28%
9°C
28%
10°C
28%
11°C
27%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
7°C 52%
9°C 28%
8°C 28%
10°C 28%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
24 août 2026
5°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
6°C
$74 Vol.
2%
7°C
$84 Vol.
52%
8°C
$0 Vol.
28%
9°C
$0 Vol.
28%
10°C
$0 Vol.
28%
11°C
$5 Vol.
27%
12°C
$162 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$335 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$481 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$150 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Wellington, New Zealand, on August 24, 2026, point to a minimum temperature most likely in the 8–11°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those outcomes.** Official guidance from MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) indicates clear to fine conditions overnight with northerly or northwesterly flows, producing lows near 10–11°C at Wellington Airport or central sites, while localized radiational cooling under clear skies could dip toward 8°C in sheltered spots.
Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and strength of the minimum (typically pre-dawn), wind speed (stronger NW winds limit cooling), and model spread on dew points and cloud cover. Historical climatology for late August shows average overnight lows near 8–9°C, but recent days have featured milder readings (around 11–12°C) amid stable high pressure. Ensemble uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze influences keeps probabilities spread across the 8–11°C bins, with very low odds below 7°C or above 12°C reflecting limited downside risk from current setup. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,297Date de fin
24 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Wellington, New Zealand, on August 24, 2026, point to a minimum temperature most likely in the 8–11°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those outcomes.** Official guidance from MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) indicates clear to fine conditions overnight with northerly or northwesterly flows, producing lows near 10–11°C at Wellington Airport or central sites, while localized radiational cooling under clear skies could dip toward 8°C in sheltered spots.
Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and strength of the minimum (typically pre-dawn), wind speed (stronger NW winds limit cooling), and model spread on dew points and cloud cover. Historical climatology for late August shows average overnight lows near 8–9°C, but recent days have featured milder readings (around 11–12°C) amid stable high pressure. Ensemble uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze influences keeps probabilities spread across the 8–11°C bins, with very low odds below 7°C or above 12°C reflecting limited downside risk from current setup. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,297Date de fin
24 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts for Wellington, New Zealand, on August 24, 2026, point to a minimum temperature most likely in the 8–11°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those outcomes.** Official guidance from MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) indicates clear to fine conditions overnight with northerly or northwesterly flows, producing lows near 10–11°C at Wellington Airport or central sites, while localized radiational cooling under clear skies could dip toward 8°C in sheltered spots. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and strength of the minimum (typically pre-dawn), wind speed (stronger NW winds limit cooling), and model spread on dew points and cloud cover. Historical climatology for late August shows average overnight lows near 8–9°C, but recent days have featured milder readings (around 11–12°C) amid stable high pressure. Ensemble uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze influences keeps probabilities spread across the 8–11°C bins, with very low odds below 7°C or above 12°C reflecting limited downside risk from current setup. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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