Current numerical weather models from sources including GFS and European ensembles forecast overnight minimum temperatures in Milan on August 24 near 20–21 °C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and dew points around 17–19 °C. Recent days featured stronger radiative cooling after precipitation (16.2 °C low on August 22), raising trader focus on how increased humidity, potential evening thunderstorms, and urban heat retention may limit further drops to the 17–19 °C range that dominates market-implied odds. Small differences in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing can shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C at the official station, producing the tight clustering around 17–19 °C. Updated model runs and late-day observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.