Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth ranges for full-year 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, with strength in consumer spending and business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—offset by softer government outlays and net exports. Consensus projections from the IMF, FOMC, and private forecasters center near 2.1–2.3% for the year, supported by productivity gains yet tempered by elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and restrictive monetary policy. The September 30 Q3 GDP release and upcoming FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance du PIB en 2026
Croissance du PIB en 2026
2,0–2,5 % 39%
1,5–2,0 % 38.3%
>2,5 % 16%
1,0–1,5 % 8.7%
$59,829 Vol.
$59,829 Vol.
28 janv. 2027
<0,5 %
3%
0,5–1,0 %
3%
1,0–1,5 %
9%
1,5–2,0 %
38%
2,0–2,5 %
39%
>2,5 %
16%
2,0–2,5 % 39%
1,5–2,0 % 38.3%
>2,5 % 16%
1,0–1,5 % 8.7%
$59,829 Vol.
$59,829 Vol.
28 janv. 2027
<0,5 %
$7,600 Vol.
3%
0,5–1,0 %
$17,333 Vol.
3%
1,0–1,5 %
$3,907 Vol.
9%
1,5–2,0 %
$7,276 Vol.
38%
2,0–2,5 %
$7,623 Vol.
39%
>2,5 %
$16,090 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth ranges for full-year 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, with strength in consumer spending and business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—offset by softer government outlays and net exports. Consensus projections from the IMF, FOMC, and private forecasters center near 2.1–2.3% for the year, supported by productivity gains yet tempered by elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and restrictive monetary policy. The September 30 Q3 GDP release and upcoming FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$59,829Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth ranges for full-year 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, with strength in consumer spending and business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—offset by softer government outlays and net exports. Consensus projections from the IMF, FOMC, and private forecasters center near 2.1–2.3% for the year, supported by productivity gains yet tempered by elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and restrictive monetary policy. The September 30 Q3 GDP release and upcoming FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$59,829Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth ranges for full-year 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, with strength in consumer spending and business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—offset by softer government outlays and net exports. Consensus projections from the IMF, FOMC, and private forecasters center near 2.1–2.3% for the year, supported by productivity gains yet tempered by elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and restrictive monetary policy. The September 30 Q3 GDP release and upcoming FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes