**Recent White House request for $87.6 billion in supplemental funding—including roughly $67 billion tied to operations in the Iran conflict—has encountered immediate Senate resistance.** Democrats, including Appropriations ranking member Patty Murray and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have signaled strong opposition, citing the war’s lack of prior congressional authorization, recent bipartisan passage of a war-powers resolution directing an end to hostilities, and the Pentagon’s existing unspent balances. Senate Republicans have noted the difficulty of securing 60 votes for a standalone supplemental without broader bipartisan buy-in or use of reconciliation procedures, which some in the majority have already questioned for this purpose. With the September 30 deadline still months away but no markup or floor schedule announced, traders appear to view the combination of partisan friction, procedural hurdles, and recent legislative rebuke as the dominant factors behind the current 61.5% probability on “No.”