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Politics·House Of Representatives

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

icon for Speaker of the House after the midterms?
Politics·House Of Representatives

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Hakeem Jeffries 76%

Katherine Clark 8.8%

Mike Johnson 8.8%

Jim Jordan 5.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Hakeem Jeffries 76%

Katherine Clark 8.8%

Mike Johnson 8.8%

Jim Jordan 5.5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Hakeem Jeffries

Hakeem Jeffries

$2,080 Vol.

76%

icon for Katherine Clark

Katherine Clark

$96 Vol.

11%

icon for Pete Aguilar

Pete Aguilar

$78 Vol.

2%

icon for Jim Jordan

Jim Jordan

$113 Vol.

6%

icon for Steve Scalise

Steve Scalise

$83 Vol.

5%

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$124 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Democrats hold a consistent national generic ballot advantage of roughly six points in recent polling, aligning with historical midterm patterns against the president's party and supporting strong trader expectations for a House majority flip. Multiple forecasts, including Cook Political Report ratings and independent models, project Democrats needing only modest net gains to reach the 218-seat threshold, positioning House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the presumptive Speaker under that scenario. Republican alternatives such as Mike Johnson, Jim Jordan, and Steve Scalise reflect limited confidence in GOP retention amid redistricting battles and turnout dynamics. Democratic leadership figures like Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar appear as secondary options tied to internal caucus succession if the majority changes hands. These probabilities embed the wisdom of crowds assessing the narrow current GOP edge and scheduled November 2026 contests.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,574
End Date
Jan 3, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Democrats hold a consistent national generic ballot advantage of roughly six points in recent polling, aligning with historical midterm patterns against the president's party and supporting strong trader expectations for a House majority flip. Multiple forecasts, including Cook Political Report ratings and independent models, project Democrats needing only modest net gains to reach the 218-seat threshold, positioning House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the presumptive Speaker under that scenario. Republican alternatives such as Mike Johnson, Jim Jordan, and Steve Scalise reflect limited confidence in GOP retention amid redistricting battles and turnout dynamics. Democratic leadership figures like Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar appear as secondary options tied to internal caucus succession if the majority changes hands. These probabilities embed the wisdom of crowds assessing the narrow current GOP edge and scheduled November 2026 contests.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,574
End Date
Jan 3, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 76%, followed by "Katherine Clark" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Speaker of the House after the midterms?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Katherine Clark" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.