The high implied probability that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, will not become law in 2026 stems from its repeated passage in the House—most recently in February 2026 by narrow margins such as 218-213—followed by consistent failure to advance in the Senate. The bill, which would mandate documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, reached the upper chamber after its April 2025 House approval but has encountered the 60-vote filibuster threshold. With Republicans holding 53 seats and limited Democratic support, procedural votes have fallen short, including opposition from at least one Republican senator. Efforts to attach provisions to measures like the NDAA or pursue scaled-back versions through reconciliation have not overcome Senate resistance, leaving the legislation stalled amid partisan divisions over election administration requirements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high implied probability that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, will not become law in 2026 stems from its repeated passage in the House—most recently in February 2026 by narrow margins such as 218-213—followed by consistent failure to advance in the Senate. The bill, which would mandate documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, reached the upper chamber after its April 2025 House approval but has encountered the 60-vote filibuster threshold. With Republicans holding 53 seats and limited Democratic support, procedural votes have fallen short, including opposition from at least one Republican senator. Efforts to attach provisions to measures like the NDAA or pursue scaled-back versions through reconciliation have not overcome Senate resistance, leaving the legislation stalled amid partisan divisions over election administration requirements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$190,044End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high implied probability that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, will not become law in 2026 stems from its repeated passage in the House—most recently in February 2026 by narrow margins such as 218-213—followed by consistent failure to advance in the Senate. The bill, which would mandate documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, reached the upper chamber after its April 2025 House approval but has encountered the 60-vote filibuster threshold. With Republicans holding 53 seats and limited Democratic support, procedural votes have fallen short, including opposition from at least one Republican senator. Efforts to attach provisions to measures like the NDAA or pursue scaled-back versions through reconciliation have not overcome Senate resistance, leaving the legislation stalled amid partisan divisions over election administration requirements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$190,044End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, will not become law in 2026 stems from its repeated passage in the House—most recently in February 2026 by narrow margins such as 218-213—followed by consistent failure to advance in the Senate. The bill, which would mandate documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, reached the upper chamber after its April 2025 House approval but has encountered the 60-vote filibuster threshold. With Republicans holding 53 seats and limited Democratic support, procedural votes have fallen short, including opposition from at least one Republican senator. Efforts to attach provisions to measures like the NDAA or pursue scaled-back versions through reconciliation have not overcome Senate resistance, leaving the legislation stalled amid partisan divisions over election administration requirements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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